February 15, 2024/Futureview Research
In January 2024, the headline inflation rate rose to 29.90%, up from 28.92% in December 2023, marking an increase of 0.98 percentage points. Comparing year-on-year, January 2024 saw an 8.08% point increase over January 2023’s rate of 21.82%. This indicates a notable escalation in inflation compared to the previous year. Moreover, on a month-on-month basis, January 2024 experienced a 2.64% inflation rate, showing a 0.35% increase from December 2023’s rate of 2.29%. This suggests a more rapid rise in the average price level in January 2024 compared to the preceding month.
Food Inflation
According to the NBS, the food inflation rate skyrocketed to 35.41% year-on-year, marking an 11.10% point surge compared to January 2023’s rate of 24.32%. This substantial increase was primarily fueled by notable spikes in the prices of staple items such as bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, oil and fat, fish, meat, fruits, as well as coffee, tea, and cocoa.
On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate for January 2024 stood at 3.21%, surpassing December 2023’s rate of 2.72% by 0.49% points. This uptick was driven by a notable acceleration in the average prices of potatoes, yam & other tubers, bread and cereals, fish, meat, tobacco, and vegetables.
Furthermore, when analyzing the average annual rate of food inflation for the 12-months leading up to January 2024 compared to the previous 12-month average, a significant increase of 7.38% points was observed. This surge, with an average annual rate of change hitting 28.91% in January 2024, showcases a noteworthy escalation from January 2023’s average rate of 21.53%. This information highlights the increasing financial strain within the food industry, shaping the broader inflationary environment and directly affecting the cost of living for households across the country.
Core Inflation
Core inflation, which excludes the volatile prices of agricultural products and energy, surged to 23.59% year-on-year, marking a significant increase of 4.71% compared to January 2023’s 18.88%. This uptick was primarily driven by notable rises in the prices of various goods and services, including passenger transport by road, medical services, housing rentals, pharmaceutical products, accommodation services, and air passenger transport.
On a month-on-month basis, the Core Inflation rate for January 2024 reached 2.24%, up from December 2023’s 1.82%, representing a notable increase of 0.42%.
Furthermore, the average 12-month annual inflation rate stood at 21.15% for the 12-months ending January 2024, showcasing a substantial rise of 4.74% points from January 2023’s 16.41%. These figures provide a detailed insight into the inflationary trends, illustrating the broader economic landscape and its impact on consumer purchasing power and cost of living.
Urban Inflation
Urban inflation surged to 31.95% year-on-year, marking a notable increase of 9.40% points from January 2023’s 22.55%, while on a month-on-month basis, it reached 2.72%, rising by 0.30% points compared to December 2023’s 2.42%. The corresponding 12-month average for urban inflation stood at 27.01% in January 2024, reflecting a significant increase of 7.10% points from January 2023’s 19.91%.
Rural Inflation
The rural inflation rate soared to 28.10% year-on-year, marking a substantial increase of 6.97% points from January 2023’s 21.13%. Similarly, on a month-on-month basis, rural inflation reached 2.57% in January 2024, representing a notable uptick of 0.40% points compared to December 2023’s 2.17%. Furthermore, the corresponding 12-month average for rural inflation stood at 23.85% in January 2024, showcasing a significant rise of 5.01% points from January 2023’s 18.84%. These figures paint a detailed picture of the inflationary trends within rural areas, indicating the growing financial pressures faced by rural communities.
State Profile
Core Inflation
In January 2024, Kogi (35.79%), Oyo (34.58%), and Akwa Ibom (33.16%) topped the list for year-on-year All Items inflation rates, while Borno (22.57%), Taraba (24.83%), and Benue (26.64%) reported the slowest increases. However, when considering month-on-month changes, Ondo (3.79%), Osun (3.77%), and Jigawa (3.58%) saw the most significant upticks, contrasting with Bayelsa (0.45%), Yobe (1.10%), and Ogun (1.35%), which experienced the slowest month-on-month inflation growth. These distinctions underscore the varied inflationary dynamics across regions.
Food Inflation
In January 2024, Food inflation experienced its highest year-on-year increases in Kogi (44.18%), Kwara (40.87%), and Rivers (40.08%), while Bauchi (28.83%), Adamawa (29.80%), and Kano (30.08%) saw the slowest rises. Conversely, on a month-on-month basis, Ondo (4.69%), Osun (4.59%), and Edo (4.58%) witnessed the highest food inflation rates, contrasting with Bayelsa (0.24%), Yobe (0.97%), and Ogun (1.44%), which reported the slowest month-on-month increases.
