February 20, 2024/CSL Research

According to data from the National Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s crude oil production including condensates, increased 5.85% m/m reaching 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January 2024, up from 1.55 mbpd in December 2023. Excluding condensates, the production rose to 1.43 mbpd, compared with 1.34 mbpd in the previous month. In 2023, the average crude oil production was 1.47 mbpd, slightly below our projected 1.48 mbpd. Persistent challenges such as pipeline vandalism, theft, and terminal shutdowns, hampered the growth of crude oil production throughout 2023. These production figures fell short of the government’s expectations of 1.69 mbpd in 2023. 

Further analysis of the data showed that production from Bonny Terminal increased by 9.25% to 6.94 million barrels in January 2024 from 6.35 million barrels in December 2023. Forcados Terminal’s crude oil production increased by 4.51% to 8.75 million barrels in January from the 8.37 million barrels produced in the previous month. Escravos Terminal produced 4.24 million barrels in January, an increase of 3.55% from the 4.09 million barrels produced in December 2023. Production at the Brass and Qua Iboe terminals increased by 15.72% and 6.03% to 896,581 barrels and 4.30 mbpd from 774,783 and 4.05 mbpd produced in December 2023. 

Nigeria has been unable to reach its OPEC production quota for more than two years, undermining the country’s principal source of foreign exchange. The oil sector remains in recession, as underinvestment and elevated theft have squeezed Nigeria’s oil output from around 2mbpd five years ago to about 1.47mbpd in 2023. We anticipate the country’s oil production will average 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2024, driven by the government’s proactive initiatives to reactivate inactive oil terminals and revive dormant oil wells. We note that in the medium term, the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has set an ambitious plan of 2.6 mbpd by 2026.