June 24, 2024/CSL Research
According to recent data released by the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s total public debt has surpassed the N100 trillion mark for the first time, reaching N121.67 trillion (US$91.46 billion) at the end of Q1 2024.
This figure includes both domestic and external debt stocks of the federal government, as well as the debts of the 36 state governments and the Federal Capital Territory. In comparison, the public debt stood at N49.85 trillion as of March 31, 2023, and N97.34 trillion as of 31 December 2023.
The 24.99% increase (N24.33 trillion) in Nigeria’s public debt within three months was primarily due to the depreciation of the Naira. This resulted in a N17.8 trillion increase in external debt (in Naira terms), despite a decline of US$379,000 in the actual dollar value during the same period.
The N6.53 trillion increase in domestic debt was attributed to new borrowings by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) to partially finance the 2024 budget deficit, as well as the securitization of a portion of the N7.3 trillion Ways and Means Advances from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Domestic debt is primarily composed of FGN bonds, treasury bills, treasury bonds, savings bonds, FGN sukuk, promissory notes, and green bonds. FGN bonds and treasury bills made up 74% and 20% of the domestic debt stock respectively as of Q1 2024.
In the last twelve years, Nigeria’s total public debt has skyrocketed by 1111.35%, while in the last one year of the current administration, it has climbed 39.2%. Based on FY 2023 GDP data at current prices, the debt to GDP ratio comes to about 41.5%, above Nigeria’s self-imposed limit and IMF benchmark of 40%.
The government’s fiscal deficit for 2024 is N9.18trn, as revenue mobilization remains largely constrained and spending continues to jump. Debt servicing and personnel costs remain a huge part of total spending, limiting the fiscal space.
Considering current economic realities, with no glimmer of improvement in the short term, we would likely continue to see debt levels increase.
Click here to read full PDF copy of reports
