July 19, 2024/United Capital Report

We’re excited to share our H1-2024 review and H2-2024 Outlook. Here are some highlights from the report. See full report here.
 
Since the turn of the year 2024, Nigerian authorities have expedited the implementation of reforms to address the deterioration in external accounts and restore macroeconomic stability.
 
The CBN’s measures, including a more flexible exchange rate regime and increased interest rates, have signaled a commitment to attracting foreign investment. However, substantial and sustained capital inflows will require time and the execution of major structural reforms.
 
Concurrently, fiscal consolidation efforts are being hampered by an unprecedented inflationary shock and its adverse effects on economic growth. 
In H2 2024.

Here are our predictions for the second half of the year:

• Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 3.3% in 2024, driven by increased oil production, agricultural advancements, and non-oil sector reforms.
• Inflation is expected to slow in the latter half of 2024 but is forecasted to remain above the CBN’s target, with a headline rate of 27.1% by December.
• The naira is projected to range between ₦1,423.26/$ and ₦1,550/$ in H2 2024, supported by local petrol supply from the Dangote refinery and a $750 million disbursement from the World Bank.
• Financial system liquidity is expected to increase by 40.2% in H2 2024 while Bond yields are likely to remain elevated due to the government’s reliance on the domestic debt market.
• Investors are expected to favor short-term rates over longer-term exposure, leading to mixed sentiments in the bonds market.

 
We remain committed to providing you with the most comprehensive and insightful analysis of the Nigerian economy. As we navigate through these challenging times, we appreciate your continued support.