November 1, 2024/CSL Research
Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the national average cost of a healthy diet resumed its upward trend in September 2024, rising by 7.3% to ₦1,345 per adult per day, up from ₦1,255 in August. The Cost of a Healthy Diet (CoHD) report tracks the least expensive combination of locally available foods that meet globally consistent dietary guidelines, providing a measure of both physical and economic access to healthy diets. This figure excludes transportation and meal preparation costs. Regionally, the average CoHD in September 2024 was highest in the South-West at ₦1,598 per adult per day, while the North-West had the lowest average at ₦1,144, underscoring significant regional disparities in food costs.
Further analysis revealed that among the six food groups in the Healthy Diet Basket (HDB)—Starchy Staples, Oils & Fats, Fruits, Vegetables, Legumes, Nuts & Seeds, and Animal Source Foods, Fruits and Vegetables were the most expensive per calorie. These two groups made up 11% and 15% of the total Cost of a Healthy Diet (CoHD), respectively, yet contributed only 7% and 5% of the total calories in the HDB. In contrast, Legumes, Nuts, and Seeds were the most cost-effective, accounting for just 7% of the total CoHD while supplying 13% of the HDB’s total calories.
A broader suite of indicators, known as the Cost and Affordability of a Healthy Diet (CoAHD) framework is used globally. Nigeria is closely monitored by global organizations like the UN and World Bank within the framework of the CoAHD indicators. These organizations track the country’s progress in ensuring that its population has access to affordable, nutritious food. While there have been slight improvements in agricultural production, Nigeria remains a country of concern within the global monitoring framework as the country still faces significant challenges in ensuring that majority of its citizens can afford a healthy diet Food supply in Nigeria has been affected by numerous challenges over the years, including climate change, global conflicts, border closures, and more recently, the removal of the petrol subsidy and the sharp devaluation of the Naira. However, insecurity remains the most critical issue facing the agricultural sector. Farmers, even in the southern region, continue to report attacks by herdsmen, who frequently invade farms, destroying crops. Many farmers have lost their lives while attempting to protect their land, which has left others too fearful to work on their farms. This insecurity has significantly reduced food production, contributing to the sharp rise in food inflation, which reached 37.77% in September 2024 compared with 13.51% in September 2019.
The Federal Government’s Accelerated Stabilization and Advancement Plan (ASAP), which is crucial for improving food production and supply, is facing unexpected delays. Despite initial expectations for smooth implementation, particularly regarding the import waiver on food imports, the plan has stalled. The Nigeria Customs Service has yet to receive official clearance for the waiver, causing a slowdown in the plan’s execution. This, along with recent flooding incidents, suggests that a swift reduction in food prices may not occur as initially expected.
