December 31, 2024/CSL Research
Industry data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) reveals a significant year-on-year (y/y) decline in active mobile subscriptions for October 2024. The total number of active subscriptions dropped by 64.59 million, or 29.07%, to 157.60 million in October, down from 222.19 million in October 2023. However, on a month-on-month basis, active subscriptions saw a slight increase of 1.74%, rising from 154.90 million in September 2024 to 157.60 million in October. The data indicates that the country added 2,695 subscribers in October, suggesting that telecom companies are beginning to recover from the effects of the NIN-SIM debacle on mobile subscriber numbers.
MTN, the largest operator by subscriber base, experienced a month-on-month increase of 2.2 million subscribers, bringing its total to 80.38 million in October, up from 78.10 million in September. Airtel, the second-largest operator by subscriber count, gained 697,430 subscribers, bringing its total active lines to 54.45 million from 53.75 million the previous month. On the other hand, Globacom, the third-largest operator, saw a slight decline, losing 44,635 subscribers, which brought its total to 19.11 million from 19.15 million in September.
Similarly, 9mobile experienced a decrease of 245,296 subscribers, reducing its active lines to 3.39 million from 3.64 million over the same period. Nigeria’s teledensity, which measures active telephone connections per 100 inhabitants, increased from 71.46% in September to 72.70% in October 2024. Broadband penetration also rose slightly, from 41.56% to 42.24% during the same period.
The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has confirmed the completion of the NIN-SIM linkage process, ensuring that all active SIM cards in Nigeria are now verified and linked to valid National Identification Numbers (NIN). As a result, we expect a gradual recovery in mobile subscription numbers as affected users begin reactivating previously barred lines. Our outlook for Nigeria’s telecom sector remains highly optimistic. This confidence is driven by the country’s growing population, ongoing digital transformation, increasing smartphone adoption, rising digital literacy, and the rapid expansion of 4G and 5G networks. These factors are expected to sustain robust growth in the telecom industry in the coming years.
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