March 27, 2025/CSL Research
The February 2025 Gas Production Status Report by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicates that Nigeria’s total gas production for the month was 197,131.88 million standard cubic feet (MMscf), 2.44% year-on-year (y/y) higher than 192,430.74 MMscf recorded in February 2024. The breakdown of gas production showed that of this total, Associated Gas (AG)—natural gas produced alongside crude oil—accounted for 113,777.79 MMscf, up from 110,679.81 MMscf in the same period of 2024. Non-Associated Gas (NAG)—gas produced from conventional fields independent of crude oil—was 83,354.09 MMscf, compared to 81,750.93 MMscf in February 2024. However, on a month-on-month (m/m) basis, total gas production in February declined by 15.12% from the 232,234.33 MMscf recorded in January 2025, which was the highest volume in the past 36 months.
In line with recent trends, domestic gas sales recorded a 21.00% year-on-year (y/y) increase, rising to 53,011.04 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) in February 2025 from 43,810.73 MMscf in February 2024. Conversely, export gas sales continued to decline, falling 12.56% y/y to 65,128.49 MMscf in February 2025. This drop was steeper than the 8.76% y/y decline recorded in January 2025, when export sales stood at 81,370.89 MMscf.
This shift aligns with the Federal Government’s planned liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) export ban, aimed at prioritizing domestic supply and stabilizing LPG prices, which are currently influenced by external market indexing. On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, both domestic (-20.99% m/m) and export (-19.96% m/m) sales declined, largely due to the overall drop in total gas production. However, the share of domestic sales as a percentage of total sales remained steady at 45%, the same as in January 2025. Looking ahead, March 2025 gas production is expected to decline further, following recent pipeline explosions that have disrupted supply.
As part of broader policy objectives, the cooking gas export ban, which took effect on November 1, 2024, was expected to initiate industry-wide engagement by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). The regulator planned to work with stakeholders over 90 days to develop a domestic LPG pricing framework, linking prices to local production costs. However, regulatory actions in this regard remain unclear, as cooking gas prices in the domestic market have stayed relatively elevated months after the export ban began. That said, the sustained increase in domestic gas sales suggests a short-term positive trend in the government’s efforts to ensure a well-supplied local market. If this trend persists, it could help moderate prices further in the medium term.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 27 March 2025 – Energy.pdf
