May 8, 2025/Cordros Report
Airtel Africa Plc (AIRTELAFRI) published their 2025FY audited results today (08 May), reporting an EPS of USD0.06 (vs loss per share of USD0.04 in 2024FY). The turnaround in earnings largely reflects a 51.7% y/y decline in total finance cost to USD821.97 million (2024FY: USD1.70 billion). Meanwhile, the board has proposed a final dividend of USD0.04 per share, implying a dividend yield of 2.9% based on the closing price of NGN2,156.90/s as of 07 May, at NGN1,615.00/USD.
AIRTELAFRI’s group revenue declined by 0.5% y/y to USD4.96 billion in 2025 (Q4-25: +17.8% y/y to USD1.32 billion), as declines in voice (-9.8% y/y | 43.8% of revenue) and other services (-0.1% y/y | 8.4% of revenue) outweighed the growth in data (+4.0% y/y | 34.8% of revenue) and mobile money (+18.7% y/y | 16.8% of revenue). The overall revenue decline was largely attributed to significant currency depreciation in Nigeria, Malawi, and Zambia, which impacted currency translation. Meanwhile, average revenue per user (ARPU) declined by 7.6% y/y to USD2.60 (Q4-25: +8.6% y/y to USD2.70), reflecting subdued revenue growth in relation to customer base expansion. However, in constant currency terms, revenue grew by 21.1% y/y (Q4-25: +23.2% y/y), supported by growth in voice (+10.6% y/y) and data (+30.5% y/y).
In Nigeria, revenue fell by 30.4% y/y (Q4-25: +15.5% y/y) as persistent naira depreciation led to declines across all segments—voice (-36.9% y/y), data (-26.2% y/y), and other services (-17.4% y/y). However, in constant currency, revenue grew by 36.4% y/y (Q4-25: +39.8% y/y), reflecting growth in voice (+24.3% y/y), data (+44.5% y/y), and other (+58.7%) revenue segments. Constant currency revenue growth (+36.4% y/y) was driven by a 4.7% increase in the total subscriber base to 53.32 million (with 1.17 million net additions in Q4-25) and strong demand for data services, with data usage per subscriber rising 33.4% y/y to 8.4 GB per month.
East Africa revenue grew by 13.6% y/y (Q4-25: +20.6% y/y) in reported currency, supported by strong performances in voice (+6.3% y/y), data (+21.6% y/y) and other (+21.8% y/y) revenue segments. In constant currency terms, revenue surged 18.8% y/y (Q4-25: +17.4% y/y), driven by subscriber growth (+11.7% y/y to 77.55 million, with 1.08 million net additions in Q4-25) and a 30.2% increase in data usage per customer to 6.2 GB per month. This growth was fueled by the expansion of network coverage, with 4G coverage now reaching 99.5% and 5G services extending to 1,231 sites (2024FY: 799 sites), as well as the scaling of the distribution network.
In Francophone Africa, revenue increased by 7.2% y/y (Q4-25: +10.6% y/y), driven by growth in data (+23.4% y/y) revenue, despite declines in voice (-1.3% y/y) and other (-8.9% y/y) revenue. In constant currency, revenue rose by 7.9% y/y (Q4-25: +12.5% y/y). The region’s revenue growth was supported by a recovery in market trends and the benefits of sustained network investment, with subscriber base growth increasing by 8.8% y/y to 35.18 million (with 0.70 million net additions in Q4-25), while data usage per customer grew by 22.7% y/y to 5.4 GB per month.
Meanwhile, mobile money revenue increased by 18.7% y/y, contributing 16.8% of total revenue (Q4-25: +27.6% y/y). In constant currency, mobile money revenue grew by 29.9% y/y (Q4-25: +30.4% y/y). Growth was fueled by an expanded Airtel Money distribution network, a 17.3% increase in customers to 44.6 million (Q4-25: net addition of 0.27 million), and a 21.5% y/y increase in transaction value to USD136.50 billion (Q4-25: +31.0% y/y to USD36.30 billion).
Total expenses rose slightly by 4.0% y/y (Q4-25: +16.5% y/y), reflecting currency depreciation and high energy prices, particularly in Nigeria. As a result, EBITDA declined by 5.1% y/y (Q4-25: +19.8% y/y), leading to a 228bps contraction in EBITDA margin to 46.5% (Q4-25: +78bps y/y to 47.3%). Notably, EBITDA margin declined across the regions – Nigeria (-402bps y/y to 50.0% | Q4-25: +59bps y/y to 52.8%), East Africa (-96bps y/y to 47.6% | Q4-25: +83bps y/y to 47.5%), and Francophone Africa (-342bps y/y to 38.8% | Q4 -25: +60bps y/y to 39.8%).
Further down, total finance costs fell by 51.7% y/y to USD821.97 million (Q4-25: -52.4% y/y to USD221.49 million), primarily reflecting the 79.6% y/y decline in derivative and foreign exchange losses to USD92.00 million (2024FY: USD452.00 million).
Overall, AIRTELAFRI reported a profit before tax (PBT) of USD661.24 million (vs. a loss before tax of USD63.11 million in 2024FY) and a profit after tax (PAT) of USD328.46 million (2024FY: loss after tax of USD89.20 million).
Comment: Despite a revenue slowdown, primarily driven by lower Nigerian revenue, AIRTELAFRI achieved a turnaround in earnings for 2025FY, highlighting lower exceptional derivative and FX losses. Looking ahead, we anticipate sustained revenue and profitability growth, supported by recent tariff adjustments in Nigeria, a relatively stable operating environment and currency across key regions, expanding data and mobile money services, disciplined cost management, and reduced FX exposure. Our estimates are under review.
