May 9, 2025/Cordros Report
Cordros Research updates you on MTN Nigeria Communications Plc’s Q1-25 results, adjusting its year-end TP upwards by 7.5% to NGN363.01/s and maintaining a ‘BUY’ rating, with a revised revenue growth and EBITDA margin expectations, while lowering DPS forecast to NGN7.47.
We update our views and estimates on MTNN for 2025E following the company’s Q1-25 result release. As we noted in our initial review, the performance in Q1-25 reflected MTNN’s recovery from the FX-induced losses in the last two years. The robust revenue growth reported in Q1-25 translated into positive earnings, as cost pressure subsided and FX losses significantly reduced. Following our review, we adjust our year-end TP upwards by 7.5% to NGN363.01/s (previously:
NGN337.69/s) and maintain our “BUY” rating. The upward revision to our TP is due to the reassessment of our revenue growth expectations to reflect the faster-than-expected growth in subscriber count, and to adjust our ARPU forecast upwards to better reflect the impact of the increase in mobile tariffs. We lower our DPS forecast to NGN7.47 (previous: NGN16.93), as we now expect more conservative dividends, with the telco likely prioritising reserve rebuilding post-profitability and delaying a return to their historically high payout levels (2018 – 2022 average: 86.0%). On our estimates, MTNN trades on 2025E P/E and EV/EBITDA of 7.6x and 3.5x, respectively.
Note
View the full report and consider the adjusted TP and DPS forecasts for MTN Nigeria Communications Plc. here
