May 16, 2025/Coronation Report

The NBS announced its April Inflation numbers:
Headline rate: 23.71%y/y (24.23 y/y in March)
Core rate:        23.39% y/y
Food rate:        21.26% y/y

• The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the headline inflation rate for April 2025 declined by 0.52% to 23.71% compared to March 2025 (24.23%). On a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate in April 2025 was 1.86%, which was 2.04% lower than the rate recorded in March 2025 (3.90%).
• The three major contributors to the headline inflation figure were Food and non-alcoholic Beverages 9.49%, Restaurants & Accommodation Services 3.06%, and Transport 2.53%, while the smallest contributors were Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco, and Narcotics 0.09% and Recreation, Sport, and Culture 0.07%.
• Food inflation eased to 21.26% compared to 21.79% as of March 2025. This drop was attributed to the reduction in average prices of items such as Maize flour, Wheat grain, Yam flour, Soya beans, Rice, Bambara beans and Brown beans.
• Core inflation (all items less farm produce and energy) fell to 23.39% from 24.43% in March 2025.
• The decrease in the inflation rate is largely influenced by the drop in food prices and domestic PMS prices falling across the country, following the resumption of the Naira-for-crude agreement.
• The decline in headline inflation in February 2025 to 23.18% from 34.22% in January was because of the rebasing of the CPI. April’s decline therefore is the first notable decline this year.
• Looking ahead, if food inflationary pressures continue to trend downwards, because it still comprises the largest proportion of the CPI basket, headline inflation will probably also continue to gradually decline. The US/China reproachment on the tariffs issue should ease fears of a globally inflationary spike from the tariff standoff.