May 20, 2025/CSL Research
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has published the Business Expectations Survey (BES) for April 2025, highlighting perspectives from key sectors such as Industry, Services, and Agriculture. The findings reveal a generally optimistic outlook for the Nigerian macroeconomy, with a confidence index of 22.3 points recorded in April.
Looking ahead, business sentiment is expected to improve further, with confidence levels projected to rise to 25.3 points in May, 35.8 points in July, and 42.8 points by October 2025. These indices represent businesses’ expectations regarding changes in various aspects of their operations in the months ahead. A confidence index above 0.0 signifies positive sentiment toward business activities, while a value below 0.0 indicates a negative outlook.
The survey revealed that all sectors maintained a positive short-term outlook for business activities in April 2025, with the mining & quarrying sector expressing the highest level of optimism. Respondent firms also anticipated an appreciation of the Naira, which we attribute to CBN’s ongoing initiatives aimed at improving transparency and stability in the foreign exchange market. Furthermore, businesses across all sectors expressed optimism regarding job growth and expansion opportunities. Sector analysis revealed that the construction sector holds the strongest employment prospects, while the mining & quarrying sector demonstrates the greatest potential for business expansion in the near term.
Despite the positive outlook, respondents highlighted several critical challenges impacting business operations in April 2025. Chief among these were high interest rates, insecurity, and burdensome tax obligations. Other notable constraints included inadequate power supply, excessive bank charges, and limited access to finance. Supporting the optimistic sentiment, recent economic data shows strengthening business confidence. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 51.8 points in April 2025, signalling increased output across various sectors and continued progress towards economic recovery.
Nonetheless, persistent structural issues—such as insecurity, elevated interest rates, multiple taxation, and unreliable electricity supply—pose significant risks. Without targeted and effective policy interventions, these challenges could undermine Nigeria’s medium-term economic growth ambitions.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 20 May 2025 – Economy .pdf
