June 10, 2025/CSL Research
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released its Business Expectations Survey (BES) for May 2025, offering insights into the outlook of key sectors—Industry, Services, and Agriculture. The findings indicate continued optimism about Nigeria’s macroeconomic prospects, with the overall business confidence index standing at 18.7 points in May. However, this marks a decline from 31.7 points in March and 22.3 points in April, suggesting some recent caution among businesses.
This decline is likely linked to concerns about the global trade tensions sparked by the Trump administration, which raised uncertainties for Nigerian businesses. Looking ahead, business sentiment is expected to improve, with confidence levels projected to rise to 23.8 points in June, 34.5 points in August, and 41.1 points by November 2025. In the BES, a confidence index above 0.0 indicates positive sentiment about future business conditions, while a value below 0.0 reflects a negative outlook.
All surveyed sectors maintained a positive short-term outlook in May 2025, with Agriculture reporting the highest level of optimism. Businesses also anticipate an appreciation of the Naira, driven by the CBN’s recent efforts to enhance transparency and stability in the foreign exchange market. Across all sectors, firms expressed optimism about job creation and business expansion opportunities. The construction sector reported the strongest employment prospects while the mining & quarrying sector showed the greatest potential for near-term business growth.
Despite the positive outlook, respondents highlighted several critical challenges impacting business operations in May 2025. Chief among these were insecurity, high interest rates, and burdensome tax obligations. Other notable constraints were inadequate power supply, excessive bank charges, and limited access to finance. Recent data further supports the cautiously optimistic sentiment. The CBN’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 52.1 points in May 2025, indicating expansion in business activity across various sectors and signalling ongoing progress towards economic recovery. Nonetheless, significant structural challenges—particularly insecurity and elevated interest rates continue to pose risks. Without targeted and effective policy interventions, these issues could undermine Nigeria’s medium-term economic growth ambitions.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 10 June 2025 – Economy .pdf
