July 10, 2025/Coronation Report

E x e c u t i v e  S u m m a r y

Headline inflation has moderated in recent months, with both food and core inflation showing signs of stabilization. However, we expect the June 2025 headline inflation rate to rise modestly, driven by a spike in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and mild increases in food prices. Our forecast suggests a month-on-month (m/m) headline inflation of 1.76%, resulting in a projected CPI of 23.38% for June 2025.

Key  D r i v e r s  f o r  J u n e  2 0 2 5

• Oil Price Spike: During the first half of June, global oil prices rose due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, causing Dangote Refinery, a key supplier of PMS to the Nigerian market now, to increase its PMS price from N880 to N930 per litre. This led to further price hikes by their downstream partners in June.

• Insecurity and Weather Shocks: Insecurity in key food-producing regions—particularly the Middle Belt and Northwest—disrupted both farming activities and the transportation of goods. Additionally, flooding in agrarian areas impacted farmlands. Notably, we observed that the price of some food items had been trending higher especially in urban areas. These structural challenges would likely contribute to localized spikes in food inflation, especially for fresh produce and grains.

E x t e r n a l  S h o c k s

The inflation outlook for June 2025 remains tilted to the upside, driven primarily by external shocks.  However, oil prices may ease in July following President Trump’s call for a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. In addition, Dangote Refinery recently reduced the ex-depot price of PMS, although the broader market had yet to fully adjust to the new pricing at the time of writing this report. 

Nonetheless, if food prices continue to rise due to seasonal factors, inflationary pressures could persist in the coming months. On the other hand, a sustained decline in oil prices may offer some moderation in overall inflation.

C o n c l u s i o n

We expect Nigeria’s CPI to rise to 23.38% in June 2025, with headline inflation accelerating to 1.76% m/m. Policymakers should monitor external risks closely, as further shocks could challenge the recent downward trend in inflation.

We expect the June 2025 headline inflation rate to rise modestly, driven by a spike in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and mild increases in food prices. Our forecast suggests a month-on-month (m/m) headline inflation of 1.76%, resulting in a projected CPI of 23.38% for June 2025.

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