Global Markets:

  United States

• Consumer sentiment in the US dropped slightly to 55 points in October 2025, compared with 55.1 points in September 2025.
• This marked the 2nd consecutive monthly decrease, pushing sentiment to its lowest level since May 2025.
• With government data paused, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and others estimate jobless claims rose to about 235,000, likely from temporary layoffs during the shutdown.
• US stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs despite the ongoing government shutdown as at Thursday.
• Fresh tariffs on China however, changed market direction on Friday.

 Euro Area

• Euro Area retail sales edged up by 0.1% month-on-month in August 2025.
• The slight increase is due to higher sales of food, drinks, and tobacco  which offset the marginal decline in non-food products.
• This indicates partial recovery from a revised 0.4% decline in July 2025.
• FTSE 100 rose by 0.19% and Stoxx 600 index climbed  by 0.15%.

  Asia

• Japan’s nominal wage growth slowed to 1.5%, while real wages fell by 1.4% for the eighth month, missing forecasts of a 2.6% increase.
• Wholesale prices climbed by 2.7%, putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise policy rates.
• The World Bank raised China’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.8%, but warned of slowing momentum.
• The SHCOMP appreciated by 1.32% despite the just ended Holiday.

  Oil Markets

• Crude oil market closed the week in the green territory.
• This was due to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) announcing a smaller-than-expected increase in production, which helped ease market fears of an oversupply.

Outlook:

The major mover of the market next week is the new tariff President Trump announced on China late Friday. According to the announcement, the US will impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 2025. Equity markets may fall while bond market yields may rise. Oil prices may consolidate as traders weigh OPEC+ supply restraint, Chinese demand, and geopolitical risks.

Domestic Economy:

   Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index Upsurge in September

• Nigeria’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose to 54.0 in September 2025 from 51.7 in August.
• It’s the year’s highest level, marking nine straight months above 50 and signaling sustained private sector growth.
• The consistent rise in PMI points to a stronger Gross Domestic Product (GDP) performance in Q3 2025.

   World Bank Raises Nigeria’s 2025 Growth Forecast to 4.2%

• The World Bank raised Nigeria’s growth forecast to 4.2%, citing stronger macro stability and reforms driving non-oil growth.
• United Capital Research revised Nigeria’s growth forecasts to 5.11% (Q3), 5.78% (Q4), and 4.66% for FY 2025, reflecting stronger economic momentum.
• Stronger GDP growth boosts business activity and investor confidence.

Equity Market:

• NGX-ASI rose by 2.37% week on week (w/w), closing at 146,988.04 points.
• Market capitalisation rose to ₦93.30tn due to buy interests.
• The Nigerian equity year-to-date return stood at 42.81%.

Money Market:

• The Nigeria Treasury Bills (NTBs) market rallied, with yields continuing to drop due to strong demand and the easing of monetary policy.
• Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (OVR) settled at 24.50% and 24.85% respectively.
• Open Market Operations (OMO) yield closed at 20.99% for the 271-day paper.

Outlook:

Equity Market

The Nigerian equity market could sustain its bullish momentum on the back of strong buy interest and positive earnings expectations. Improved stability and reforms could further attract foreign inflows, though there could be profit-taking due to short-term gains.

Fixed Income Market

The market remains supported by high liquidity, and strong demand, keeping NTB yields on a downward path. Investors might position ahead of further decline of yields.