October 24, 2025/CSL Research
on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) within the next one year, according to Chairman Aliko Dangote in a recent interview with S&P Global. We note that the move aligns with the broader strategy of the Dangote Group, following the listing of other subsidiaries such as Dangote Cement and Dangote Sugar Refinery. According to Dangote, the proposed listing will likely be conducted incrementally, depending on market depth and investor appetite.
Given the strategic importance of the Refinery, we believe that the listing could attract strong participation from both domestic and international investors, particularly those seeking exposure to the energy sector. We note that the scale of the refinery, revenue potential, and central role in Nigeria’s desire for energy self-sufficiency make it an attractive proposition for investors. Beyond its direct investment appeal, the listing is poised to be a major catalyst for the equity market, potentially driving market depth, liquidity, and capitalisation growth in the coming year.
A successful listing would not only diversify the energy sector representation on the exchange but also help broaden the investable universe for portfolio managers and pension funds, enhancing overall market appeal. Meanwhile, the listing would also provide Dangote with an avenue to raise capital to support operational requirements and debt servicing.
In a related development, Dangote announced plans to expand the refinery’s capacity from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to as much as 1.4 million bpd, nearly doubling its original size. This follows earlier statements in July indicating efforts to increase production to 700,000 bpd by the end of the year. Reports suggest that discussions are underway with Middle Eastern energy companies to secure financing for the expansion.
Although no specific timeline has been provided, the project underscores Dangote’s ambition to transform the facility into one of the largest refining complexes in the world, surpassing India’s 1.36 million bpd refinery.
Once completed, the expansion would position the Dangote Refinery as a major export hub, capable of meeting Nigeria’s domestic refined product demand while serving both regional and international markets.
That said, a key risk going forward could be the supply of crude oil to the refinery. The refinery has already faced challenges securing adequate volumes of crude locally, a situation that could become even more pronounced once the planned capacity expansion is completed. We believe that the government may be reluctant to allocate a significant share of domestic crude output to the refinery, given the potential trade-off between supplying local refiners and generating foreign exchange earnings through crude exports. As a result, Dangote Refinery may increasingly rely on importing crude oil to meet feedstock requirements, a trend already observable this year, as the facility has reportedly imported around 35% of its crude oil supply.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 24 October 2025 – Oil Refinery.pdf
