December 1, 2025/Cordros Update

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98% y/y in Q3-25, down from 4.23% y/y in Q2-25. The growth outturn is 8bps higher than Cordros’ estimate (+3.90% y/y).
 
Based on the GDP breakdown provided, the oil sector growth eased to 5.84% y/y in Q3-25 (Q2-25: +20.46% y/y). According to NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.64mb/d in Q3-25, 11.6% y/y higher than in Q3-24 (1.47mb/d). In addition, the oil sector contributed 3.44% to the total GDP (Q2-25: 4.05%) during the review period.
 
On the other hand, the non-oil sector expanded further by 3.91% y/y in Q3-25 (Q2-25: +3.64% y/y), while it contributed 96.56% to the total GDP (vs 95.95% in Q2-25).

Breaking it further, Agriculture GDP grew higher by 3.79% y/y (Q2-25: +2.82% y/y), Services GDP advanced by 4.15% y/y (Q2-25: +3.94% y/y), while Industries GDP grew slowly by 3.77% y/y (Q2-25: +7.46% y/y).

In terms of contribution, Services, Agriculture, and Industries accounted for 53.02%, 31.21%, and 15.77% of the overall GDP, respectively.