Global Markets:

United States

In the United States (US), private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, marking the largest monthly decline in over two and a half years as small businesses scaled back their workforce. Despite this, the services sector remained resilient, with the November services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) holding steady at 52.6 points. This indicates ongoing expansion even as employment and new orders weakened. US equity markets responded positively, rising as investors priced in a growing likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its December meeting, reflecting optimism that easing monetary policy could support economic activity.

Euro Area

Euro Area inflation edged up to 2.2% in November, from 2.1% in October, driven primarily by rising services-sector prices, while core inflation remained steady at 2.4%. Private sector activity accelerated, with the composite PMI climbing to 52.8 points, the fastest pace in roughly 30 months, underpinned by strong services demand despite weakness in manufacturing. The services PMI itself reached 53.6 points, the highest reading since mid-2023, reflecting robust new business volumes across several countries, particularly Ireland and France, signaling solid underlying momentum in consumer-oriented sectors.Asia

In Asia, China’s manufacturing sector contracted slightly in November, with the private-sector PMI falling to 49.9 from 50.6 points, reflecting stalled production and weaker new orders. Despite the slowdown in China, Asian equities markets, particularly in Japan, gained traction after a strong 30-year Japanese government bond sale helped stabilise bond-market volatility, boosting investor confidence.

Oil Markets

Oil prices edged higher last week as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in Russia added a risk premium to global oil markets, lifting most light sweet grades including Bonny Light.

Outlook:

Global markets are likely to trade cautiously this week as investors monitor economic signals across major regions. In the US, labour market and other economic data will influence expectations ahead of the Fed’s December meeting, while Euro Area inflation and business surveys will shape views on European Central Bank policy. In Asia, focus remains on Chinese manufacturing and Japan’s market stability amid global yield shifts. Commodity markets, especially oil, may react to supply developments and changing demand expectations. Overall, investors are expected to balance softening activity with prospects of accommodative monetary policy.

Domestic Economy:

Nigeria’s PMI rose in November Amid Broad-Based Activity and Fiscal Planning

Nigeria’s composite CBN Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 56.4 points in November from 55.4 points in October. This marks the twelfth consecutive month of expansion. Sectoral activity was broad-based, with agriculture at 58.2 points, services at 56.8 points, and industry at 54.2 points, reflecting sustained growth across the economy. Also, real GDP growth increased, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting Q3 GDP 2025 growth rate of 3.98% year-on-year compared to 3.86% in Q3 2024. The Federal Government has approved a 2026 fiscal plan totaling ₦54.5 trillion (US$37.7 billion), projecting revenue of ₦34.33 trillion while planning a deficit of ₦20.1 trillion. Debt servicing costs are budgeted at ₦15.9 trillion. The combination of sustained PMI expansion and a clear fiscal roadmap is expected to underpin economic activity, while cautious monitoring of government spending and investment will be crucial to maintaining growth momentum.

Equity Market:

The Nigerian Exchange All Share Index (NGX-ASI) rose by 2.45% week on week (W/W), closing at 147,040.07 points and year to date of 42.86%. 

Fixed Income and Money Market:

The fixed-income market traded mixed this week as investors balanced improved system liquidity with cautious positioning. Short- and mid-tenor Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) yields declined on renewed demand, while the 12 months -year bill yield inched higher on mild profit-taking. The bond market was slightly bearish, with yields rising across the 3-year to 10-year curve. Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (OVR) settled at 22.50% and 22.75% respectively. Open Market Operations (OMO) yield closed at 19.84% for the 228-day paper. The fixed-income market traded mixed during the week as investors balanced improved system liquidity with cautious positioning. 

Outlook:

Equity Market

The Nigerian equity market may continue to experience cautious optimism this week. While recent profit-taking has slightly moderated short-term gains, sustained PMI expansion, broad-based sectoral growth, and clarity on the 2026 fiscal plan could underpin positive investor sentiment. Key drivers will include macroeconomic indicators such as inflation FX stability, and any fiscal developments that signal effective spending and investment management. Overall, the market bias remains cautiously positive, with potential selective buying in fundamentally strong stocks.

Fixed Income Market

The fixed-income market could remain moderately active this week, supported by steady system liquidity and ongoing investor appetite for short- and mid-tenor NTBs. The upcoming Debt Management Office (DMO) bond auctions, combined with a focus on fiscal sustainability and debt servicing, may encourage demand across the 3- to 10-year tenor spectrum. Stable OPR and OVR rates suggest the Central Bank will maintain measured liquidity management, which could favour selective yield compression, especially in short-term papers.