January 23, 2026/Coronation Update

Summary 
 
In its January World Economic Outlook (WEO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global growth outlook upward to 3.3% y/y in 2026, from 3.1% y/y in the October WEO. The 2027 growth projection was left unchanged at 3.2% y/y. Global inflation is projected to continue its downward trend, easing to 3.8% y/y in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, largely supported by cooling demand and lower energy prices.

Global Economy

The global economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026, with growth outlook revised to 3.3% in the latest WEO report, reflecting an upgrade from October’s WEO, and broadly in line with the 2025 global growth estimate. The revision is underpinned by upward growth adjustments in advanced economies, now projected at 1.8% y/y (vs. 1.6% previously), and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) at 4.2% y/y (vs. 4.0% previously).

The revised outlook reflects continued resilience in global demand, supported by strong technology-led investment, particularly AI-related capital expenditure in North America and Asia, alongside supportive fiscal and monetary policy stances, accommodative financial conditions, and sustained private-sector adaptability Risks to the outlook remain tilted in both directions.

Downside risks stem from further escalation in trade tensions, a slowdown in AI-related investment momentum, weaker household purchasing power, and heightened geopolitical risks.

Conversely, continued acceleration in AI investment, easing trade frictions, and sustained policy support could provide upside to the global growth trajectory.

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