February 17, 2026/InvestmentOne Report

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that headline inflation eased marginally to 15.10% YoY in January 2026, representing a modest 5bps decline from the prior month. The most notable development was in the monthly print: headline inflation came in at -2.88% MoM, a sharp swing from +0.54% in December (down 342bps), reflecting broad-based price moderation after the festive period and a pronounced decline in food prices. 

We expect headline inflation to extend its disinflationary trend in February to hover between 14.50% – 15.00%, supported by continued harvest glut to keep food inflation in single digits. Additionally, the appreciation of the naira at the foreign exchange market and easing downstream energy costs following a reduction in PMS pump prices by Dangote Refinery should support the naira and further dampen import-cost pass-through across both food and core components, particularly imported food, pharmaceuticals, household items and other tradable goods. Kindly find HERE, the full report, covering our analysis and considerations.