March 4, 2026/InvestmentOne Report
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that, Nigeria s real GDP grew by 4.07% in Q4:2025, up from 3.76% YoY in Q4:2024, marking the strongest quarterly outturn since Q2:2025. Growth was broad-based across agriculture, industry and services, supported by easing inflationary pressures, a stable foreign exchange environment and improving financial conditions.
Key macro developments, including Nigeria s exit from the FATF grey list, sovereign rating upgrades from Moody s and Fitch, steady progress in bank recapitalization, bolstered investor confidence and capital inflows, while the Central Bank of Nigeria maintained a stabilizing policy stance after its September rate cut, reinforcing macro stability into year-end.
We expect the Nigerian economy to grow between 4.00% 4.50% in FY:2026, building on the 3.87% expansion recorded in FY:2025. Growth is supported by ongoing monetary easing following the CBN s reduction of the policy rate to 26.5%, stronger credit creation from ongoing bank recapitalization, continued recovery in oil output driven by the Licensing Round and improved pipeline security, and lower refined fuel import costs from the Dangote Refinery ramp-up.
Key risks to this trajectory include oil price volatility (budget benchmark: USD75/bbl), security challenges in food-producing regions, elevated real borrowing costs, and global macroeconomic uncertainties.
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