March 5, 2026/CSL Research

The Dangote Refinery recently increased its gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to ₦874 per litre from ₦774 per litre, marking a sharp upward adjustment in ex-depot pricing. The revision reflects prevailing dynamics in the international crude oil market, where prices have surged above US$80 per barrel from around US$70 per barrel just a week earlier, following the joint US-Israel attack on Iran, which has heightened supply concerns and raised geopolitical risk premiums.

With oil prices expected to remain elevated as markets factor in higher freight and insurance premiums amid disruptions to global crude supply, we could see Brent trading in the US$80-100 per barrel range for the remainder of the month. In this context, further upward adjustments in domestic fuel prices would not be surprising, given that refined product prices are benchmarked to international crude oil dynamics. Indeed, the recent increase in the PMS gantry price by Dangote Refinery has already started to transmit to the retail market, with pump prices rising across several states to as high as ₦950 per litre, compared with around ₦835 per litre just weeks ago.

As highlighted in our latest report (see CSL Economics and Strategy: “Rising crude prices on US-Iran tensions provide short-term upside for Nigeria”, 3 March), the uptick in fuel prices poses near-term upside risks to inflation. Higher energy costs tend to feed directly into transportation fares and indirectly into food and core goods prices through elevated production and distribution expenses. Consequently, inflation could edge higher in March before moderating in subsequent months, contingent on a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

However, if the conflict proves more prolonged than anticipated, inflationary pressures may persist, potentially complicating the outlook for a more accommodative monetary policy stance this year. For households, this would imply weaker real purchasing power and higher living costs, while businesses may face margin compression or be compelled to pass additional costs on to consumers.

Click here to download full report:​ CSL Nigeria Daily – 5 March 2026 – Economy.pdf