March 5, 2026/Coronation Report

Summary 

In line with our GDP forecasts of 4.02% for Q4’25 and 3.82% for FY’25, Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 4.07% y/y in Q4’25, increasing from 3.98% in Q3’25 and 3.76% in Q4’24, indicating sustained economic recovery. Nominal GDP remained robust, increasing by 8.12% y/y to N122.81trn in Q4’25 and by 18.25% y/y to N431.18trn in FY 2025, reflecting elevated price levels and continued activity across key sectors.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP grew by 12.16%, compared with 11.39% in Q3’25, pointing to continued expansion. For the full year 2025, GDP growth settled at 3.87%, higher than the 3.38% recorded in 2024, underscoring improved macroeconomic momemtum. Growth remained predominantly non-oil driven, with the non-oil sector accounting for 96.47% of total output, representing a modest -15bps decline from the previous year. 

Resilient growth across agriculture, financial services, telecommunications, construction, and oil and gas continued to underpin overall economic growth…

 Download the full report here