April 13, 2026/United Capital Update

Global Markets

United States

Recent data from the United States points to early signs of labour market softening, as initial jobless claims rose slightly to 219,000, indicating a modest increase in unemployment filings while overall labour market conditions remain relatively resilient. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve’s March 2026 meeting highlighted policymakers’ concerns about persistent inflation and the risk that price pressures could remain elevated for longer than expected. As a result, officials emphasised the need for greater confidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target before considering any policy easing. This reinforces expectations that the Fed will maintain a cautious and data-dependent stance in the near term.

Euro Area

Economic activity in the euro area showed signs of softening, with the composite PMI easing to 50.7 points in March 2026, indicating only marginal expansion as demand conditions weakened. The moderation was driven by softer services activity and declining new orders, while rising energy costs continued to push input and output prices higher, keeping inflationary pressures elevated. These developments point to a fragile growth environment and reinforce expectations that the European Central Bank will remain cautious as it balances slowing momentum against persistent inflation risks.

Asia

China’s official March 2026 data showed manufacturing activity returning to expansion, with the NBS PMI at 50.4 points, signalling a modest recovery in industrial output despite lingering external demand pressures. In Japan, core inflation eased to around 2.0%, reflecting moderating price pressures as food and energy inflation softened. Overall, the data points to a gradually stabilising but still uneven macroeconomic environment across both economies.

Oil Markets

Oil markets remained volatile during the week. Bonny Light crude rose by 14.08% to US$133.58/bbl from US$117.09/bbl, reflecting sustained supply concerns and continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In contrast, Brent crude declined by 5.20% to US$95.90/bbl from US$101.16/bbl, suggesting some easing in global benchmark prices amid shifting market expectations. Despite the divergence in price movements, the market remains sensitive to supply disruptions and evolving geopolitical developments.

Outlook

Markets will be watching the US-Iran ceasefire closely this week as it remains fragile, and any breakdown would trigger sharp moves across assets, keeping equities headline-driven and oil prices susceptible to sudden swings in either direction. Even with the truce holding, crude remains well above pre-war levels and a full normalisation of Gulf energy flows could take months given the scale of infrastructure damage sustained during the conflict. On monetary policy, rate cut expectations have risen on ceasefire optimism, but central banks remain cautious, knowing that any re-escalation would quickly reverse that repricing. Emerging markets particularly across Asia face the added burden of managing rising inflation and slowing growth driven by the energy shock, with limited room to absorb further pressure. The overall risk environment remains cautiously constructive, but highly sensitive to whatever comes out of the Middle East next.

Domestic Economy

FTSE Russell approved Nigeria’s reclassification from Unclassified to Frontier Market status, effective 21 September 2026, after previously downgrading the country in September 2023 due to FX repatriation challenges. The decision follows Nigeria’s placement on the FTSE Watch List in September 2025 after improvements in FX liquidity and the clearance of backlog obligations. FTSE confirmed that Nigeria now meets its Quality of Markets criteria, signalling renewed confidence in the country’s FX market functioning and capital mobility.

Equity Market

The Nigerian Exchange All Share Index (NGX-ASI) advanced by 1.03% week on week, rising from 201,698.89 points to close at 203,770.42 points, bringing the year-to-date return to 30.95%. Market capitalisation increased to ₦131.17tn. Sector performance was largely positive, led by gains in the Banking sector, while the Insurance sector recorded the weakest performance during the week.

Fixed Income and Money Market

The fixed income market recorded mixed sentiments during the week. In the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) segment, yields rose across the 91-day and 182-day tenors to 16.34% and 17.31% respectively, while the 364-day yield declined to 18.80%, indicating selective demand at the longer end of the NTB curve. Meanwhile, the Overnight rate edged up slightly to 22.31%, while the Overnight Repo rate remained unchanged at 22.00%. In the bond market, yields mostly trended upward, with the 5-year, 7-year and 10-year bond yields rising to 16.37%, 16.45% and 14.95% respectively, while the 3-year yield declined marginally to 16.02%. This reflects a mildly bearish sentiment in the bond market, as investors demanded higher yields amid cautious positioning and prevailing liquidity conditions.

Outlook:

Equity Market

Equity market is likely to remain selectively constructive this week, supported by ongoing rotation into high‑quality, dividend‑paying large‑cap stocks as investors seek income and balance‑sheet resilience. However, upside is expected to be uneven, with elevated bond yields, restrictive monetary conditions, and lingering inflation risks continuing to compete for capital. As a result, market performance is likely to remain highly stock‑specific, with leadership concentrated in defensive and cash‑generative names rather than broad‑based index gains.

Fixed Income Market

Fixed income markets are expected to remain broadly range‑bound this week but well supported, as elevated yields continue to attract strong demand. However, tight liquidity conditions and ongoing inflation risks should limit scope for a sustained rally, keeping the outlook data dependent and favouring carry‑driven strategies.