April 16, 2026/InvestmentOne Report
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that headline inflation climbed to 15.38% in March 2026, 32bps higher than was printed in the previous month. This is unsurprising, given the impact of the ongoing conflict in the middle east on global crude oil prices and petroleum products in Nigeria. For context, the price of PMS rose from NGN830.00/liter since attacks began on February 28, currently hovering around NGN1,320.00/liter across most regions of the country. This price shock was also evident on a month-on-month basis, as headline inflation rose by 4.18% in March, compared to 2.01% in February.
Going forward, we expect inflationary pressures to remain prevalent in the near term, mainly due to the spillover effects of the Iran war, which has caused major disruptions in global energy supply amid the closure of the strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global energy supply.
Against this backdrop, the cost of petroleum products is likely to stay elevated, keeping general price levels high in the domestic economy. However, we highlight that this outlook is contingent on events surrounding the war, especially with the negotiations going on amongst parties involved. Overall, we envisage a considerable rise in headline inflation in April driven specifically by elevated energy prices.
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