Nigerian equities continued to trade higher this week, marking a third straight week of gains, with the market closing positive in all five trading sessions. The performance was driven by buying interest in ARADEL (+28.9%), MTNN (+10.7%), AIRTELAFRI (+10.0%), STANBIC (+36.6%), SEPLAT (+9.4%), BUAFOODS (+3.3%) and ZENITHBANK (+12.5%). As a result, the All-Share Index advanced by 6.6% to 217,131.54 points
April 17, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the United States Department of Labour, initial jobless claims declined by 11,000 to 207,000 in the week ended 11 April, down from a revised 218,000 in the prior week – and below market expectations of 215,000. The moderation marks the largest weekly decline since February. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the largest increases were recorded in New York (+8,287), Connecticut (+1,781), and California (+1,296), while the largest declines were seen in Oregon (-3,235), Illinois (-2,116), and Maryland (-1,270). Meanwhile, the 4-week moving average rose by 500 to 209,750 from a revised 209,250. Looking ahead, labour market conditions are expected to remain broadly stable, supported by resilient labour demand and companies’ preference to retain workers amid hiring frictions. However, downside risks persist. Prolonged Middle East tensions and the associated surge in oil prices—up by over 35.0%—could raise operating costs, weaken business confidence, and discourage permanent hiring, leading to a gradual cooling in labour market conditions.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China, the second-largest economy grew at its fastest annual pace in three quarters at 5.0% y/y in Q1-26 (Q4-25: +4.5% y/y | Q1-25: +4.8% y/y), driven primarily by resilient export performance. The data marks a robust opening to China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period, reinforcing confidence in China’s economic resilience amid an increasingly complex global environment and the evolving economic implications of the Iran conflict. More precisely, the impacts of energy market shocks were mitigated by ample oil reserves, a diversified energy mix, and state controls, which helped the economy absorb external disruptions with limited domestic price volatility. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew at an accelerated pace of +1.3% (Q4-25: +1.2% q/q). Looking ahead, China’s growth is expected to remain resilient, supported by robust industrial output, continued state-led fixed asset investment, and sustained export performance. However, downside risks persist. Prolonged disruptions stemming from Middle East tensions could keep energy prices and shipping costs elevated, while tighter global financial conditions and rising inflationary pressures may dampen external demand, collectively weighing on China’s export outlook and broader growth momentum. Accordingly, the IMF has revised its 2026 growth forecast upward by 20bps to 4.4% y/y (previous: +4.2% y/y), although growth is still expected to moderate relative to 2025FY (+5.0% y/y).
Global Markets
Global equities extended gains this week, as optimism grew over a potential longer-term ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, despite the breakdown in peace talks over the weekend. Markets also drew support after President Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. Beyond geopolitics, investors also assessed a mix of economic data and corporate earnings across major economies. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: +1.4%; S&P 500: +3.3%; NASDAQ 100: +4.8%), were on track to close the week higher, buoyed by renewed expectations that the US and Iran could resume negotiations, raising the prospect of an agreement that may ease tensions and lead to the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Sentiment was further supported by a softer than expected US producer price inflation data, alongside first quarter earnings releases from GS, JPM, WFC, C, BAC, and PEP. Similarly in Europe, major indices (STOXX Europe 600: +0.4%; FTSE 100: +0.2%) were on track to close higher, following Iran’s announcement that it has opened the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels, thereby easing concerns of energy-driven stagflation. Elsewhere, Asian markets (Nikkei 225: +2.7%; SSE: +1.6%) advanced, supported by renewed diplomatic signals between the US and Iran, sustained interest in technology stocks, and better than expected first quarter economic growth in China. Finally, Emerging and Frontier markets (MSCI EM: +3.6%; MSCI FM: +3.8%) indices advanced, driven by gains in China (+1.6%) and Vietnam (+3.8%), respectively.
Domestic Economy
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation rose by 32bps to 15.38% y/y in March (February: 15.06% y/y), marking the first increase since March 2025. The reading primarily reflects the pass-through effects of elevated energy prices on overall price levels. Specifically, the food index rose by 219bps to 14.31% y/y (February: 12.12% y/y), primarily driven by a sustained upward pressure on food prices due to constrained supply conditions during the ongoing planting season, alongside elevated logistics costs driven by the spike in energy prices. Core inflation surged by 33bps to 16.21% y/y (February: 15.88% y/y), due to the impact of the spike in fuel prices on transportation and business costs. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose sharply to 4.18% (February: +2.01% m/m). Following the March spike, price pressures are beginning to ease gradually, supported by a slower pace of increase in energy prices and a more stable exchange rate. Nonetheless, while near-term moderation is expected, overall price levels remain relatively high, and risks are still tilted to the upside. A re-escalation of the Middle East conflict could reignite oil price pressures, while persistent insecurity is likely to keep food supply tight despite the onset of the off-season (irrigated) harvest. We therefore forecast inflation to moderate to 2.0% m/m in April, while the year-on-year rate is projected to edge higher to 15.54% (March: 15.38%).
According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s public debt increased by 3.9% q/q to NGN159.28 trillion in Q4-25 (Q3-25: NGN153.29 trillion). We attribute the increase to additional borrowings undertaken to finance rising government expenditures, driven by the continued revenue shortfall. Notably, the total domestic debt stock (53.3% of total public debt) increased by 3.7% q/q to NGN84.85 trillion (Q3-25: NGN81.82 trillion), reflecting the increase in both state debt stock (+8.9% q/q) and Federal government debt stock (+3.4% q/q). At the same time, total external debt stock (46.7% of the total public debt) increased by 7.0% q/q to USD51.86 billion (vs +3.1% q/q to USD48.46 billion in Q3-25). The increase reflects additional disbursements from multilateral lenders (+1.9% q/q), including the World Bank (USD347.04 million) and the African Development Bank Group (USD93.48 million), alongside higher borrowings from bilateral sources (+6.9% q/q) and a sharp uptick in syndicated loans (+89.0% q/q) primarily tied to capital projects. In naira terms, total external debt increased at a slower pace by 3.7% q/q to NGN84.85 trillion (Q3-25: NGN81.82 trillion), as the appreciation of the naira (Q4-25: NGN1,435.26/USD vs Q3-25: NGN1,474.85/USD) partly offset the overall increase in external debt. On a year-on-year basis, total debt grew by 10.1%. Looking ahead, total debt is expected to increase further, primarily due to high government borrowings to fund the 2026 budget deficit (Cordros estimate: NGN22.74 trillion vs 2026 Budget: NGN31.46 trillion). We project total public debt to settle at NGN179.27 trillion (or 35.3% of GDP) in 2026E.
Capital Markets
Equities
Nigerian equities continued to trade higher this week, marking a third straight week of gains, with the market closing positive in all five trading sessions. The performance was driven by buying interest in ARADEL (+28.9%), MTNN (+10.7%), AIRTELAFRI (+10.0%), STANBIC (+36.6%), SEPLAT (+9.4%), BUAFOODS (+3.3%) and ZENITHBANK (+12.5%). As a result, the All-Share Index advanced by 6.6% to 217,131.54 points, bringing the month-to-date and year-to-date returns to 12.6% and +39.5%, respectively. Market activity strengthened, with total volume and value traded increasing by 6.6% w/w and 28.4% w/w, respectively. On sectors, performance was broadly bullish, as the Oil & Gas (+17.6%), Banking (+11.9%), Consumer Goods (+3.4%) and Industrial Goods (+1.3%) indices advanced. The Insurance index closed the week flat.
Looking ahead, attention will turn to the first wave of Q1-26 earnings releases on the NGX next week, which should begin to shape near term market direction. As results come through, investor positioning is likely to become more selective, with flows increasingly tied to earnings delivery and outlook across tickers.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate contracted by 19bps w/w to 22.2% as the strong system liquidity at the start of the week, complemented by inflows from OMO maturities (NGN1.34 trillion), partially offset OMO PMA outflows (NGN2.17 trillion). Nonetheless, system liquidity remained robust, settling at an average net long position of NGN4.03 trillion, relative to NGN6.62 trillion in the prior week.
In the absence of any mop up activity by the CBN, system liquidity is likely to expand further, buoyed by inflows from OMO maturities (NGN457.00 billion) and FGN bond coupon (NGN145.98 billion). This could ease funding pressures and lead to a softening in the OVN rate.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury Bills secondary market traded on a bullish note as the average yield contracted by 2bps to 18.8%. NTB and OMO yields declined by 2bps and 7bps to 17.4% and 20.8%, respectively, driven by robust system liquidity. Meanwhile, the CBN conducted an OMO PMA during the week, offering NGN600.00 billion across the 7-, 63-, and 140-day maturities. Aggregate subscriptions reached NGN2.58 trillion, with the CBN eventually allotting NGN2.17 trillion at respective stop rates of 21.90%, 19.88%, and 19.88%.
Next week, with system liquidity expected to remain strong, we anticipate sustained demand for bills, which should drive a further moderation in yields. Additionally, the DMO is scheduled to conduct an NTB PMA next Wednesday (April 22), with NGN750.00 billion in bills expected to be offered.
Bonds
Similarly, the FGN bond secondary market closed on a bullish note, with the average yield contracting by 5bps to 15.9%. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield contracted at the short (-33bps) end, driven by demand for the MAR-2027 (-135bps) bond, while it expanded at the mid (+2bp) segment, due to sell pressures on the AUG-2030 (+10bps) bond. Meanwhile, the average yield closed flat at the long end.
Over the medium term, yields are expected to trend lower, primarily supported by strong domestic liquidity conditions, though the pace of compression may be tempered by persistent risk-off sentiment (particularly among offshore investors) and an elevated government borrowing programme.
Foreign Exchange
The naira appreciated by 0.7% w/w to NGN1,346.00/USD, supported by supply from offshore investors looking to participate in the OMO PMA. Meanwhile, gross external reserves declined by USD160.00 million to USD48.65 billion (16 April 2026), marking the fifth consecutive week of decline. In the forwards market, the naira rates appreciated across the 1-month (1.2% to NGN1,367.07/USD), 3-month (1.1% to NGN1,405.78/USD), 6-month (1.2% to NGN1,459.27/USD) and 1-year (1.4% to NGN1,566.69/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable in the near term, although downside risks persist. While heightened Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) caution, driven by the ongoing US–Iran conflict, may temper inflows, a relatively supportive external environment and elevated naira yields should continue to attract foreign portfolio investment, albeit at a slower pace than pre-conflict levels. Nonetheless, in the event of renewed demand pressures, we anticipate that the CBN will implement measured FX interventions to curb excessive volatility.
