Global Markets

United States

Headline inflation increased to 3.3% year-on-year in March 2026 from 2.4% in February 2026. This is driven by increases in energy cost indicating persistent price pressures. High inflation, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions, is expected to delay rate cut by Federal Reserve keeping global interest rate elevated longer than previously anticipated.

Euro Area

Euro Area headline inflation rose to 2.6% year-on-year in March 2026 from 1.9% in February 2026, while core inflation moderated to 2.3% from 2.4% in February 2026, suggesting underlying pressures are easing but still present. Growth momentum remains fragile, with Euro Area industrial activity still contracting, highlighting weak manufacturing conditions and structural vulnerabilities, particularly around energy dependence. The European Central Bank has maintained a cautious, data-dependent stance, keeping the deposit rate at 2.0% as it balances inflation risks with slowing growth.

Asia

China maintained relatively strong momentum in the first quarter, with GDP growth of around 5.0% year‑on‑year supported by robust exports and steady industrial output, while retail sales growth remained subdued, highlighting weak household demand. Inflation stayed low near 1%, prompting policymakers to retain a measured, pro‑growth stance amid ongoing risks from softer global demand, trade uncertainty, and energy price volatility.

Oil Markets

Oil markets trended upward during the week, with both benchmarks recording gains. Bonny Light crude rose by 2.37% to US$136.74/bbl from US$133.58/bbl, reflecting sustained supply tightness and strong demand. Brent crude also increased by 3.64% to US$99.39/bbl from US$95.90/bbl, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Overall, the market remains sensitive to supply dynamics and geopolitical developments, sustaining price volatility.

Outlook

Global markets are expected to trade with cautious optimism, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and a recent moderation in oil prices, which may help underpin risk sentiment. However, uncertainty around the durability of the ceasefire and ongoing supply‑side risks are likely to keep volatility elevated. At the same time, expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy and lingering concerns around global growth should limit sustained upside. Overall, markets are likely to remain range‑bound, balancing improved sentiment against persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

Domestic Economy

Inflation rose to 15.38% in March 2026, from 15.06% in February, signalling a gradual uptick in price pressures. The increase was largely driven by food inflation, which rose sharply to 14.31% from 12.12%, reflecting renewed pressures in the food basket despite earlier easing trends. This suggests persistent supply-side constraints, rising costs of key staples and increase in logistics cost. Core inflation also increased by 0.33%, indicating higher energy and non-food prices, which points to a gradual build-up in underlying inflationary pressures across the economy. Overall, the data reflects a broad-based but moderate rise in inflation, driven by both food and core components.

Equity Market

The Nigerian Exchange All Share Index (NGX-ASI) advanced by 6.57% week on week, rising from 203,770.42 points to close at 217,167.57 points, bringing the year-to-date return to 39.56%. Market capitalisation increased to ₦139.83tn. Sector performance was largely positive, led by gains in the Oil and Gas sector, while the Insurance sector recorded the weakest performance during the week.

Fixed Income and Money Market

The fixed income market recorded mixed sentiments during the week. In the money market, both the Overnight 22.31% and OPR 22.00% rates remained unchanged, reflecting stable short-term liquidity conditions. In the Nigerian Treasury Bills segment, yields declined at the short to mid end, with the 91-day and 182-day papers easing to 16.27% and 17.26% respectively, while the 364-day yield edged higher to 18.83%, indicating selective demand at the long end of the curve. In the bond market, performance was broadly mixed. The 3-year and 7-year yields rose to 16.06% and 16.49% respectively, the 5-year yield dipped slightly to 16.36%, while the 10-year yield remained unchanged at 14.95%. Overall, the market reflects a cautious and mixed sentiment, with mild yield adjustments across instruments amid balanced liquidity conditions.

Outlook:

Equity Market

The Nigerian equity market is expected to maintain a cautious, mildly bullish tone this week, as investors balance improving macro fundamentals and attractive valuation in some selected banking stocks against continued attractiveness of fixed income yields. Sentiment will remain stock-selective, with positioning likely concentrated in dividend-paying banking and consumer names ahead of earnings-related expectations. However, elevated Treasury bill and bond yields continue to act as a major competing asset class, limiting broad-based equity re-rating. Oil price stability and improved fiscal sentiment remain supportive for energy-linked stocks, while value-driven inflows may emerge in oversold mid-cap names. Overall, the market is likely to remain range-bound with selective upside, driven more by earnings and stock-specific catalysts than broad sentiment expansion.

Fixed Income Market

The fixed income market is expected to remain firm but mildly volatile, supported by strong demand for government securities and tight monetary conditions. Short-term bills should stay well bid as investors prioritise liquidity and attractive yields, while the long end may face intermittent pressure from inflation and supply dynamics. Overall, the market remains yield-driven, with preference skewed toward short-to-medium duration instruments.