The domestic bourse extended its bullish run for the fourth consecutive week, supported by sustained investor interest in Banking and Industrial Goods tickers. Precisely, gains in BUAFOODS (+7.9%), DANGCEM (+8.1%), WAPCO (+21.4%), FIRSTHOLDCO (+17.2%), ZENITHBANK (+7.9%), BUACEMENT (+2.5%), and UBA (+14.6%) drove the All-Share Index higher by 4.0% w/w to 225,406.05 points.
April 24, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK headline inflation accelerated to a three-month high of +3.3% y/y in March (February: +3.0% y/y). The uptick was primarily driven by a sharp rebound in transport costs and a renewed climb in food prices. Breaking it down, food inflation rose to 3.7% y/y (February: 3.3% y/y), reversing recent declines. Similarly, services inflation edged higher to 4.5% y/y (February: 4.3% y/y), reflecting higher transportation, housing and household services costs. In contrast, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, moderated slightly to 3.1% y/y (February: 3.2% y/y), offering a mild offset to the broader inflationary pressures. This marginal deceleration was largely supported by a notable decline in clothing and footwear prices, which fell 0.8% y/y (February: +0.9% y/y), as retailers adjusted pricing strategies. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose by 0.7% (February: +0.4%), the largest monthly increase since mid-2025, largely due to a significant jump in motor fuel prices following global oil market volatility. We expect UK inflation to remain sticky in the second and third quarters of 2026, as elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt energy supply lines and exert upward pressure on petrol and domestic heating costs. While the Bank of England previously anticipated a return to its 2.0% target this spring, these renewed supply-side shocks have significantly clouded the outlook. Against this backdrop, we expect the Bank to keep policy rates unchanged at 3.75% during its April 30 meeting, while maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance as it monitors the risk of secondary inflation effects.
According to the US Census Bureau, retail sales jumped by +1.7% m/m (February: +0.7% m/m), exceeding market forecasts of +1.4% m/m and marking the strongest monthly advance in over three years. The headline acceleration was primarily driven by a 15.5% m/m jump in gasoline station receipts, as a 24.1% m/m spike in pump prices forced a nominal increase in essential spending. While these price movements reflect higher costs rather than increased volume, the data also revealed signs of underlying consumer resilience. Beyond energy, gains were relatively broad based; non-store retailers (primarily online) saw a +1.0% m/m increase, and furniture and home furnishing stores rebounded with a +2.2% m/m gain. Some discretionary categories showed signs of fatigue amid intensifying cost of living pressures. Spending at bars and restaurants came in nearly flat (+0.1% m/m), indicating that consumers are prioritising essential goods and fuel over dining out. Core retail sales, excluding volatile sectors, climbed 0.7% m/m, exceeding forecasts of 0.2% m/m. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales rose by +4.0% in March (February: +4.0% y/y). Looking ahead, we expect retail momentum to face a more challenging environment in the coming months. While higher-than-average tax refunds and lower income taxes have provided a temporary cushion for households, the combination of elevated pump prices and the continued passthrough of tariff costs into consumer goods is likely to restrain real (inflation-adjusted) spending growth as the summer approaches
Global Markets
Global equities lacked clear direction this week as investors weighed escalating tensions between the US and Iran alongside economic data and earnings releases. Markets reacted to a range of developments, including stalled negotiations, cargo seizures, elevated oil prices, a temporary ceasefire extension, and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Beyond geopolitics, investors also assessed macro data, including US retail sales, inflation prints from the UK and Japan, and PMI readings across major economies, alongside a raft of Q1 corporate earnings. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: -0.3%; S&P 500: -0.2%; NASDAQ 100: +0.4%) were mixed, reflecting concerns around geopolitical developments amid stronger-than-expected retail sales, firmer PMI readings, and resilient corporate earnings releases. Meanwhile, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: -2.0%; FTSE 100: -2.0%) are set to close lower, as stalled US-Iran negotiations reinforced energy-driven inflation concerns. In contrast, Asian markets (Nikkei 225: +2.1%; SSE: +0.7%) advanced, supported by continued strength in AI-related stocks. Finally, Emerging and Frontier markets (MSCI EM: +0.1%; MSCI FM: +0.4%) edged higher, led by gains in China (+0.7%) and Vietnam (+2.2%), respectively
Domestic Economy
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s crude oil production (including condensates) reversed the decline recorded the previous month, rising 4.2% m/m to 1.55 mb/d in March (February: 1.48 mb/d). We attribute the outturn primarily to the rebound in production from the Bonga terminal (2.85 mb/d vs February: 0.06mb/d) following the routine maintenance in the previous month. Notably, the gains across the Agbami (+18.0% m/m), Qua Iboe (+18.0%m/m), Escravos (+16.7% m/m), Tulja-okwuibome (+13.0% m/m), Brass (+10.8% m/m), Odudu (+9.2% m/m) and Bonny (+9.0% m/m) terminals offset the declines in the Forcados (-24.1% m/m) terminal. Looking ahead, crude oil production is expected to improve in the near term, supported by higher investment, recent infrastructure upgrades, improved security conditions, and the integration of new oil fields and evacuation routes such as the FSO Cawthorne terminal. However, persistent structural constraints, including ageing assets and recurring maintenance shutdowns, are likely to continue capping a more robust expansion in output. Overall, we revise our 2026E production forecast downward to 1.73 mb/d (Previous: 1.75 mb/d), although this remains above the 2025FY outturn of 1.64 mb/d.
Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements to the three tiers of government in April (from March total revenue) increased by 7.5% m/m to NGN2.04 trillion (February: NGN1.89 trillion). The outturn can be attributed to higher receipts from Companies Income Tax (CIT), Capital Gains Tax (CGT), Stamp Duties, and Excise Duties, which were enough to offset declines in receipts from Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Hydrocarbon Tax, Oil and Gas Royalties, Import Duty, Common External Tariff (CET) and Value Added Tax (VAT). We estimate that the amount disbursed is 86.1% of the total gross revenue (NGN2.36 trillion) generated in the previous month, with the remaining balance allocated to transfers, interventions, and refunds (NGN246.87 billion), as well as the cost of collection (NGN81.08 billion). Based on the stipulated sharing revenue formula, the FGN received NGN789.16 billion (February: NGN675.09 billion), State Governments received NGN657.60 billion (February: NGN651.53 billion ), Local Governments received NGN468.83 billion (February: NGN456.47 billion), while oil-producing states received an additional NGN120.76 billion (February: NGN110.95 billion) as derivation (13% of mineral revenue). In the near term, we expect FAAC revenues to strengthen, supported by higher oil-related receipts amid firmer crude oil prices and improved production. This outlook is further underpinned by NNPCL’s full remittance of profits from Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs), in line with the new policy mandate (compared to the previous 40.0% remittance threshold), alongside reduced collection costs. Additionally, improved tax administration efficiency and enhanced compliance, driven by the ongoing implementation of tax reforms, are expected to support stronger non-oil revenue mobilisation and further bolster overall FAAC inflows
Capital Markets
Equities
The domestic bourse extended its bullish run for the fourth consecutive week, supported by sustained investor interest in Banking and Industrial Goods tickers. Market participants also digested the first wave of Q1-26 earnings releases across the consumer goods, cement, and hospitality sectors. Precisely, gains in BUAFOODS (+7.9%), DANGCEM (+8.1%), WAPCO (+21.4%), FIRSTHOLDCO (+17.2%), ZENITHBANK (+7.9%), BUACEMENT (+2.5%), and UBA (+14.6%) drove the All-Share Index higher by 4.0% w/w to 225,406.05 points. As a result, the month-to-date and year-to-date returns settled higher at 16.9% and +41.9%, respectively. On market activity, total volume and value traded increased by 2.4% and 3.9% w/w, respectively. Sector performance was broadly positive, as the Industrial Goods (+7.7%), Banking (+6.8%), Consumer Goods (+5.2%), Oil & Gas (+0.9%) and Insurance (+0.4%) indices advanced.
We believe market direction in the near term will be driven by Q1 corporate earnings releases, particularly from the telecoms, industrial goods, and oil and gas sectors. In addition, the transition to extended trading hours (9:00 am – 4:00 pm) remains a key watchpoint, with potential to support higher trading volumes and improve overall market liquidity.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate expanded by 4bps w/w to 22.2% as OMO PMA debits (NGN1.92 trillion) offset inflows from OMO maturities (NGN2.16 trillion). That said, system liquidity moderated to an average net long position of NGN3.86 trillion relative to NGN4.03 trillion in the prior week.
Barring any liquidity mop-up from the CBN, system liquidity is expected to remain in surplus, bolstered by NGN1.63 trillion in OMO maturities and NGN260.67 billion in FGN bond coupon inflows. This should ease funding pressures and exert downward pressure on the OVN rate.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury Bills secondary market traded on a bearish note with average yields expanding by 10bps to 18.9%. Across segments, yields in the NTB secondary market expanded by 3bps to 17.5% as investors unwound positions to participate in the NTB auction held during the week. Similarly, yields in the OMO secondary market expanded by 39bps to 21.2% as investors unwound positions to participate in the OMO auction held during the week. At Wednesday’s PMA, the DMO offered NGN750.00 billion across tenors, with total demand reaching NGN2.36 trillion. The DMO ultimately allotted NGN894.16 billion across the 91-, 182-, and 364-day tenors at stop rates of 15.95%, 16.19%, and 16.20%, respectively, with rates unchanged from the previous auction. Elsewhere, the CBN conducted an OMO PMA during the week, offering NGN600.00 billion across the 7-, 91-, and 140-day maturities. Aggregate subscriptions reached NGN2.22 trillion, with the CBN eventually allotting NGN1.92 trillion at respective stop rates of 21.90%, 19.87%, and 19.91%.
Next week, with system liquidity expected to remain robust, we anticipate sustained demand for bills, likely driving a further moderation in yields.
Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market closed on a bearish note, with the average yield expanding by 20bps to 16.0%, as market participants unwound positions ahead of the expected DMO bond auction on Monday. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield expanded at the short (+56bps) and mid (+19bps) segments, driven by selloffs on the MAR-2027 (+152bps) and APRIL-2029 (+46bps) bonds, respectively. Conversely, the average yield contracted at the long (-5bps) end, driven by demand for the JAN-2042 (-53bps) bond.
Over the medium term, yields are expected to trend lower, primarily supported by strong domestic liquidity conditions, though the pace of compression may be tempered by persistent risk off sentiment (particularly among offshore investors) and an elevated government borrowing programme.
Foreign Exchange
The naira depreciated by 1.0% w/w to NGN1,360.00/USD, as demand outpaced supply despite offshore inflows linked to participation in the week’s OMO primary market auction. Meanwhile, gross external reserves declined by USD141.17 million to USD48.48 billion (22 April 2026), marking the sixth consecutive week of decline. In the forwards market, the naira rates depreciated across the 1-month (-1.1% to NGN1,382.68/USD), 3-month (-1.2% to NGN1,422.88/USD), 6-month (-1.2% to NGN1,477.23/USD) and 1-year (-1.2% to NGN1,584.98/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable in the near term, although downside risks persist. While heightened Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) caution, driven by the ongoing US–Iran conflict, may temper inflows, a relatively supportive external environment and elevated naira yields should continue to attract foreign portfolio investment, albeit at a slower pace than pre-conflict levels. Nonetheless, in the event of renewed demand pressures, we anticipate that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will implement measured FX interventions to curb excessive volatility.
