The Nigerian equities market extended its rally, closing higher for the fifth consecutive week, supported by strong investor reaction to a raft of Q1-26 corporate earnings releases. All-Share Index gains by 7.3% w/w to 242,227.81 points.
April 30, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
At its third meeting of the year, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50% – 3.75%, in line with market expectations. The Committee noted that economic activity remains resilient, supported by higher employment growth (March 2026: +178,000 jobs) and lower umeployment rate (March 2026: -10bps to 4.3% m/m). Inflation (March: 3.3% y/y), however, remains elevated, largely driven by a surge in energy costs. In addition, the Committee highlighted that the economic impact of the ongoing developments in the Middle East—specifically the US-Iran conflict—continues to cloud the outlook and presents significant risks to both inflation and economic activity. Furthermore, while GDP growth has moderated slightly, it is expected to remain stable, supported by strong internal demand. The Fed emphasised that it will continue to assess incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook, particularly the “wait-and-see” approach necessitated by the ongoing Middle East war. Looking ahead, we expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged in the near term as it continues to assess the impact of the shuttered Strait of Hormuz and skyrocketing energy prices on the broader economic trajectory. Specifically, conflict-driven price pressures have made further cuts difficult, suggesting that policy easing will likely be delayed until clearer evidence of sustained disinflation toward the 2.0% target emerges. This view aligns with market pricing, and the CME FedWatch indicates a 99.7% probability of “a rate hold” decision at the 17 June meeting.
Headline inflation in the Euro Area rose sharply by 40bps to 3.0% y/y in April (March: +2.6% y/y), coming in 10bps above market expectations of +2.9% y/y. Pertinently, the outturn marks the highest CPI print (the CPI figure) since September 2023 (the CPI figure). This uptick was primarily driven by a continued surge in energy prices, which offset the moderation in other core components of the CPI. Specifically, energy inflation increased to +10.9% y/y (March: +5.1% y/y), pushing the headline figure well above the ECB’s target. In contrast, food inflation continued to show relative moderation, while services inflation moderated to +3.0% y/y in April (March: +3.2% y/y). Core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) moderated to +2.2% y/y from +2.3% in March. This indicates that while headline volatility is high, underlying price pressures remain contained. On a month-on-month basis, consumer price growth slowed by 30bps to +1.0% (down from +1.3% in March), reflecting the moderation in the immediate pass through of higher utility and fuel costs to the consumer. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures in the Euro Area are expected to remain skewed to the upside in the near term, driven by elevated oil and gas prices. If sustained, these higher energy costs could spill over into food and core inflation through rising input, transportation, and production costs, potentially reversing the progress made in the previous year. Consequently, the Governing Council maintained a cautious stance at its meeting today, electing to keep policy rates unchanged due to the evolving conflict in the Middle East and its impact on inflation and growth. As such, we expect the ECB to maintain a cautious, data dependent stance, likely keeping policy rates unchanged in the near term to observe if recent energy price volatility becomes embedded in wage demands and service costs before committing to further restrictive action.
Global Markets
Global equities trended lower this week as persistent geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran drove a sustained increase in oil prices. Market participants also assessed monetary policy decisions and outlooks from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank, alongside a fresh round of corporate earnings releases. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: -0.7%; S&P 500: -0.4%; NASDAQ: -0.7%) were set to close lower, reflecting concerns around geopolitical escalation, particularly as the US prepares for a prolonged naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz. Investors also reacted to the Fed’s policy stance and outlook, as well as earnings from major technology companies, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. Similarly, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: -1.9%; FTSE 100: -1.6%) are on track to close lower, weighed down by elevated energy prices and their implications for the macroeconomic outlook. Investors also assessed ECB and BoE rate decisions and guidance, Eurozone inflation and GDP prints, and earnings from companies such as AstraZeneca, GSK, Unilever, Deutsche Bank, Mercedes-Benz, Airbus, and Adidas. Elsewhere, Asian markets were mixed, as Japanese equities (Nikkei 225: -0.7%) were set to decline after the Bank of Japan held rates but raised its inflation outlook and lowered growth projections, reflecting the economic impact of Middle East tensions. In contrast, Chinese equities (SSE: +0.8%) were set to advance, supported by stronger-than-expected PMI data and gains in technology stocks. Emerging markets (MSCI EM: +0.5%) edged higher, driven by gains in China (+0.8%), while Frontier markets (MSCI FM: -0.3%) declined, reflecting losses in Romania (-2.4%).
Domestic Economy
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell below the 50.0 threshold in April, signalling a contraction in private sector activity for the first time since November 2024. The composite PMI declined to 49.4 points (March: 53.2 points), signalling broad-based contraction in economic activities amid persistent price pressures and weakening business sentiment. At the sectoral level, the Agriculture PMI eased to 50.2 points (March: 52.8 points), reflecting softer dynamics in general farming activity, new orders, inventories, and farm yields. The Services PMI deteriorated more sharply, falling into contractionary territory at 48.8 points (March: 52.0), driven by reduced activity across key segments—including wholesale trade, real estate, and transportation & warehousing—alongside declines in new orders and employment. Similarly, the Industry PMI dropped to 49.5 points (March: 54.0 points), with weaker readings recorded across production, raw materials, new orders, employment, and supplier delivery times, underscoring a loss of momentum in industrial output. Looking ahead, we expect private sector activity to remain subdued in the near term. Elevated energy and food costs are likely to sustain inflationary pressures, while the CBN’s cautious monetary policy stance should keep financial conditions restrictive, collectively weighing on business expansion and near-term growth prospects.
Based on the data from the Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Report of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), total transactions in the Nigerian equities rose by 13.0% m/m to NGN1.74 trillion in March (February: NGN1.54 trillion). The performance was primarily driven by the higher participation from both domestic (83.44% of gross transactions) and foreign (16.56% of gross transactions) investors. Specifically, transactions from domestic investors rose by 3.6% m/m to NGN1.46 trillion (February: NGN1.40 billion), following increased transactions from institutional investors (+6.9% m/m), while transactions from retail investors (-1.3% m/m) moderated slightly. At the same time, transactions from foreign investors jumped by 107.7% m/m to NGN288.80 billion (February: NGN139.03 billion), reflecting stronger market sentiment, particularly as moderating fixed-income returns have strengthened foreign demand for Nigerian equities. In the same vein, net inflows rose to NGN96.02 billion from NGN85.78 billion recorded in February. In the near term, we expect market momentum to remain supported by several key factors, including (1) PenCom’s upward revision of equity allocation limits for PFAs across all RSA fund categories, (2) FTSE Russell’s reclassification of Nigeria to Frontier Market status from “unclassified,” effective from September 2026 (3) the extension of NGX trading hours (9:00am to 4:00pm), and (4) still-resilient macroeconomic conditions. Nonetheless, we note that risks persist. In particular, rising inflationary pressures could warrant a more cautious monetary policy stance, potentially slowing the pace of decline in fixed-income yields and, in turn, moderating risk appetite for equities.
Capital Markets
Equities
The Nigerian equities market extended its rally, closing higher for the fifth consecutive week, supported by strong investor reaction to a raft of Q1-26 corporate earnings releases. Specifically, bargain hunting in BUACEMENT (+24.8%), MTNN(+11.6%), DANGCEM(+9.0%), BUAFOODS(+6.7%), AIRTELAFRI(+10.0%), ARADEL (+20.5%) and WAPCO (+18.6%) lifted the All-Share Index by 7.3% w/w to 242,227.81 points. Consequently, the month-to-date and year-to-date returns settled at 20.4% and +55.7%, respectively. On market activity, total volume and value traded rose by 1.9% w/w and 12.0% w/w, respectively. Sectoral performance was mixed, as the Industrial Goods (+16.9%), Oil & Gas (+14.4%), and Consumer Goods (+3.2%) indices advanced, while the Banking (-5.5%) and Insurance (-1.1%) indices declined.
Looking ahead, market direction may be mixed, with continued bargain hunting in select bellwether names likely to be offset by profit taking following the recent rally.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate expanded by 10bps w/w to 22.3% as OMO PMA debits (NGN1.74 trillion) offset inflows from OMO maturities (NGN1.63 trillion). That said, system liquidity strengthened to NGN5.33 trillion net long position relative to NGN3.86 trillion in the prior week.
Barring any liquidity mop-up from the CBN, system liquidity is expected to remain robust, buoyed by NGN2.71 trillion in OMO maturities. This should ease funding pressures and exert downward pressure on the OVN rate.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury Bills secondary market traded on a bullish note with average yields contracting by 5bps to 18.9%, buoyed by robust system liquidity. Across segments, the NTB secondary market closed broadly flat as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of Wednesday’s NTB auction. Conversely, yields in the OMO secondary market contracted by 3bps to 21.1% as unmet bids at the OMO auction held during the week were redirected to the secondary market. At Tuesday’s OMO auction, the CBN offered NGN600.00 billion across the 7-, 105-, and 140-day tenors, attracting strong demand with total subscriptions of NGN1.78 trillion. The CBN subsequently allotted NGN1.74 trillion across the tenors at stop rates of 21.90%, 19.85%, and 19.91%, respectively.
Next week, given our expectation of robust system liquidity, we anticipate a mild downward bias in Treasury bills secondary market yields in the near term, driven by sustained demand. Additionally, the DMO is scheduled to conduct an NTB PMA next Wednesday (May 6), with NGN700.00 billion in bills on offer.
Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market closed on a bearish note, with the average yield expanding by 5bps to 16.1%, as offshore participation was muted during the week amidst sustained local supply. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield contracted at the short (-9bps) end driven by demand for the MAR-2027 (-21bps) bond. Conversely, the average yield expanded at the mid (+5bps) segment, driven by selloffs of the JAN-2035 (+65bps) bond, while the long end closed flat. At Monday’s bond auction, the DMO reopened the AUG-2030, JUN-2032 and JAN-2035 bonds, offering a total of NGN700.00 billion. Total demand settled at NGN948.01 billion, with the DMO eventually allotting NGN276.79 billion. The stop rate on the AUG-2030 and JUN-2032, which were on-the-run last month, expanded by 30bps and 35bps to 16.30% and 16.50% respectively. While the stop rate on the JAN-2035 printed 16.59%.
Over the medium term, yields are expected to trend lower, primarily supported by strong domestic liquidity conditions. We note that the pace of compression may be tempered by persistent risk off sentiment (particularly among offshore investors) and an elevated government borrowing programme.
Foreign Exchange
The naira depreciated by 1.2% w/w to NGN1,376.00/USD, as local demand outpaced weak offshore supply. Meanwhile, gross external reserves declined by USD65.50 million to USD48.37 billion (28 April 2026), marking the seventh consecutive week of decline as the CBN resumed market intervention with a USD150.00 million sale to support FX demand. In the forwards market, the naira rates depreciated across the 1-month (-1.3% to NGN1,401.44/USD), 3-month (-1.3% to NGN1,440.92/USD), 6-month (-1.4% to NGN1,497.40/USD) and 1-year (-1.6% to NGN1,610.95/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable in the near term, although downside risk persists. Despite heightened investor caution stemming from the ongoing US–Iran conflict, a relatively supportive external backdrop and elevated naira yields should continue to underpin foreign portfolio inflows, albeit at a slower pace compared to pre-conflict levels. Nonetheless, should demand pressures re-emerge, we expect the CBN to undertake measured FX interventions to contain excessive volatility.
