May 12, 2026/Oilprice.com
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
China’s Oil Machine Hits the Brakes: Imports Sink, Margins Tank, Pressure Rises
– With Gulf supply still stranded, China’s crude imports posted a hefty 2.4 million b/d month-over-month decline in April, averaging only 9.25 million b/d and marking the lowest pace of inflows since July 2022.
– Apart from the obvious sourcing problems all Asian refiners face nowadays, Chinese refiners are also struggling to cope with Beijing’s imposed refined product export ban that limits downstream supply to the domestic market.
– Weakening domestic demand, combined with elevated crude oil prices, has sent margins for independent refiners in Shandong south, with refinery run rates collapsing to just 50% in May so far.
– China’s state planner NDRC mandated that independent refiners should not cut run rates below the averages of 2024-2025, and failing to do so would result in them seeing their import quotas slashed for good.
– According to Kayrros, Chinese inventories remain flat throughout May at 1.34 billion barrels, suggesting Chinese refiners mostly compensate for lower imports by cutting refinery runs.
Market Movers
– UK-listed energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) is reportedly seeking to sell its French retail network, aiming to close the deal by Q1 2027, putting an end to its downstream presence in the country after a 2007 refining divestment.
– The 4.2 mtpa Hammerfest LNG terminal operated by Norway’s state oil company Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) was taken offline for unplanned turnarounds due to ‘process problems’, tightening supply in Europe.
– QatarEnergy, the national oil and gas company of Qatar, has signed a memorandum of understanding with Syria to evaluate the potential of its offshore Block 3.
– Libya’s National Oil Corp. has assumed full control of the country’s idled 220,000 b/d Ras Lanuf refinery, following a decade-long legal battle with its JV partner Trasta, moving Libya closer to boost its downstream presence.
Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Seesawing over the past two weeks, ICE Brent futures are nearing $110 per barrel again, with comments from US President Trump about the ceasefire deal being on ‘life support’ keeping daily gains at 3% so far this week. Oil producers in the Gulf region have seemingly already given up on 2026, with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE flagging that full repairs to droned sites would only be possible by next year. In the days ahead, the Xi-Trump summit could dictate the macro mood of the week as Trump’s sanctions on Chinese companies this week raised alarms about any breakthroughs.
US Slaps Sanctions on Iranian Oil Traders. The Trump administration has announced new sanctions against Chinese and UAE companies that facilitate Iran’s shipment of crude oil to China, with the State Department announcing a reward of up to $15 million for new information on the IRGC’s oil trade.
Qatar Sees Hope at the End of the Tunnel. The Al Kharaitiyat LNG carrier became the first Qatari-owned vessel to successfully exit the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran conflict started more than two months ago, slated to arrive in Pakistan after Islamabad cut a deal with Iran’s IRGC forces.
Pakistan Gives Up on LNG Tenders. Having rejected all bids in its prompt tender to purchase two LNG cargoes for May delivery last week, with the lowest bid coming from BP at $17.28 per MMBtu, Pakistan’s state-owned PLL ceased all tendering activity, opting for Qatari LNG arrivals instead.
Tehran Warns of Upcoming Shortages. Iran’s Organization for Energy Optimization and Strategic Management has warned that repairs to the country’s energy infrastructure could take up to two years, requiring ‘serious investments’, highlighting particular damage to the South Pars gas field.
Iraq Defies Saudi Aramco’s Pricing. Iraq’s state oil crude marketer SOMO has slashed its official selling prices for June-loading cargoes to Asia by a hefty $13 per barrel compared to May, much more than Saudi Aramco’s $4 per barrel cut as Middle Eastern suppliers struggle to sell their oil.
OPEC Production Continues to Fall. The production of OPEC members continued its decline last month, with Reuters’ output survey indicating that the 12 nations (including the UAE) jointly lost 830,000 b/d in April, with Kuwait posting the largest monthly drop of 640,000 b/d.
Mexico’s Refining Suffers Yet Another Blow. Mexico’s only refinery situated on the country’s Pacific coast, the 330,000 b/d Oaxaca plant operated by Pemex, was taken offline after a fire incident in its hydrotreater unit that left six workers injured, the second blaze taking place there in just 5 months.
China Boosts Ethane Use to the Maximum. Chinese imports of ethane jumped to an all-time high of 1 million tonnes in April as the country’s petrochemical producers maximized their intake due to severe shortages of naphtha and LPG in the region, seeking to benefit from strong ethylene margins.
US Shale Firms Bet on Weakening WTI. US oil producer Diamondback Energy (NYSE:FANG) bought options worth some $70 million to sell the price difference between WTI and Brent at -$42 per barrel, betting on the Trump administration banning oil exports and depressing US oil prices.
Beijing Gives Up on Saudi Crude. The nominations of Chinese refiners for June-loading Saudi oil barrels have collapsed to a mere 10 million barrels, some 333,000 b/d, with consistently high formula prices leading to the lowest demand on record, with 2025 exports averaging 1.4 million b/d.
India Rejects Russia’s Sanctioned LNG. India’s Modi government has declined Russia’s offer to sell it liquefied natural gas cargoes from sanctioned projects such as Arctic LNG 2 and Portovaya LNG, rejecting the Kunpeng tanker that was anchored in the country’s waters for several weeks.
West African Is Doubling Down on Drilling. Equatorial Guinea’s oil ministry has announced it would be offering 13 oil blocks for upstream companies for direct negotiations, cancelling plans for a licensing round and seeking to replicate the success of its ConocoPhillips deal from late 2025.
IRGC Expands Its Claim of Hormuz Strait. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard has indicated it would expand its zone of control around the Strait of Hormuz, now claiming a ‘vast operational area’ 10 times wider than before the war, stretching all the way to Sirri Island, 250 km from the Hormuz.
Funds’ Bullish Appetite Pushes Copper Higher. Supply disruptions across the global mining landscape and strong hedge fund positioning have helped copper to hit a three-month peak, with the LME three-month contract touching $14,025 per tonne, up $1,000 per tonne from a week ago.
