May 14, 2026/Coronation Update

Summary  

We project headline CPI inflation for April 2026 at 15.95% y/y and 2.35% m/m. This would mark the second consecutive month of upward movement in the year-on-year rate, extending the cycle reversal that began in March 2026 after eleven straight months of disinflation.

On a month-on-month basis, we expect a softer 2.35% (vs. 4.18% in March), reflecting continued food price firmness, offset by a cooling in the monthly inflation momentum as the March energy price shock partially unwinds. The projected 2.35% m/m print signals a return toward the underlying disinflation trajectory and could be pivotal data point in shaping MPC deliberations at the next policy meeting.

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