June 11, 2026/Cordros Report
Nigeria’s trade position strengthened sharply, with the foreign trade balance widening to NGN7.55 trillion in Q1-26 from NGN1.71 trillion in Q4-25. This marks the fourteenth successive quarterly surplus and the largest since 2020. Imports fell by 18.2% y/y (-21.1% q/q) to NGN13.62 trillion, a two-year low. This decline was primarily driven by improved domestic oil refining, higher local petroleum product supply, and the appreciation of the naira. Exports earnings were up by 2.8% y/y (+11.6% q/q) to NGN21.17 trillion due to elevated crude oil prices triggered by the Middle East crisis. Should the conflict persist through the rest of the year, we expect Nigeria’s trade balance to benefit further from elevated oil prices.
In Q1-26, Nigeria’s total foreign trade fell by 6.6% y/y (-3.9% q/q) to NGN34.79 trillion, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The decline was due to the steep reduction in import spending – led by lower refined petroleum imports following the ramp-up of the Dangote Refinery, outweighing the modest gain in exports.
The effects of the ongoing Middle East crisis, which began on February 28, 2026, triggered a sharp surge in crude oil prices. As a net oil exporter, Nigeria benefited with exports expanding by 2.8% y/y (+11.6% q/q) to NGN21.17 trillion in Q1-26, while imports fell sharply by 18.2% y/y (-21.1% q/q) to NGN13.62 trillion in Q1-26, producing the largest trade surplus on record. The foreign trade balance rose by 90.9% y/y in Q1-26 (+340.9% q/q) to NGN7.55 trillion.
High Oil Prices and Production Drive Up Exports
Total exports rose 2.8% y/y (+11.6% q/q) to NGN21.17 trillion, supported by higher Other petroleum oil exports, which climbed 51.5% y/y (+10.0% q/q) to NGN6.78 trillion. At 32.0% of total exports in the quarter, Other petroleum oil exports made up a markedly higher share than the 21.7% recorded in Q4-25. The broader export performance was further aided by a sequential recovery in crude oil exports, though down 13.5% y/y (+15.5% q/q). The rebound coincided with a sharp rally in global oil prices, as Brent crude rose to a four-year high of USD118.35/bbl in Q1-26, averaging USD77.78/bbl (Q4-25: USD62.98/bbl). For Nigeria, however, the price gain was tempered by a decline in domestic crude production in Q1-26 (1.55 mb/d vs 1.63 mb/d in Q4-25). Consequently, higher oil prices translated into only modest overall export growth, as lower production volumes weighed on total export receipts.
Natural gas exports, which accounted for 9.5% of total exports, rose by 4.0% y/y (-0.2% q/q), while exports of manufactured goods (1.4% of exports) – primarily vehicle, aircraft and vessel parts – grew by 2.8% y/y. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, manufactured goods exports fell by 28.5%, a second consecutive quarterly decline, as global trade slowed, reflecting supply chain bottlenecks following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime route, in March, as well as other local logistics constraints.
Fall in Fuel Importation and Stable Naira Weigh on Import Demand
Imports fell by 18.2% y/y (-21.1% q/q) to NGN13.63 trillion, highlighting a sharp decline in oil & gas-related imports, amid the naira stability. Improved local supply of refined petroleum products, particularly from the Dangote Refinery, displaced a large share of fuel imports. This, together with the c.3.4% naira appreciation during the quarter, weighed on total imports.
Elsewhere, imports of machinery and transport equipment (c.36.8% of total imports) rose by 23.5% y/y (-2.4% q/q), pointing to a shift in import patterns towards capital goods. This supported the manufacturing sector, whose real GDP expanded by 3.3% y/y in Q1-26.
Notably, imports of chemicals and related products declined by 9.4% y/y (-25.3% q/q) to NGN2.02 trillion in Q1-26. We attribute this largely to a deliberate shift by local manufacturers towards domestically available substitutes for imported chemical inputs.
Trade Balance to Strengthen in Q2-26
Our outlook for global trade points to a gradual rather than abrupt recovery in the near term. This is predicated on a slow normalisation of global supply chains, still-elevated oil prices and a moderation in geopolitical disruptions in Q2-26.
On imports, Nigeria has already reduced its reliance on refined petroleum products, while industries are actively seeking local substitutes for key inputs. We expect imports to rise marginally to NGN14.00 trillion in Q2-26 from NGN13.62 trillion in Q1-26, while remaining well below NGN16.49 trillion in Q2-25. The softer growth reflects the absence of the elevated petroleum product imports that characterised the same period of 2025, partly offset by a gradual recovery in industrial and consumer demand for manufactured imports, alongside seasonal restocking.
On exports, the Dangote Refinery’s output will remain central to supporting refined petroleum exports. Backed by improved crude oil production, higher prices and stronger export volumes in Q2-26, we expect exports to stay at NGN23.00 trillion, up from NGN21.17 trillion in Q1-26 and NGN22.75 trillion recorded in Q2-25. With improved FX liquidity and a gradual pick-up in non-oil activity, we look for a modest rebound in exports over the rest of the year, barring renewed shocks to the economy.
Having weighed the upsides and downsides of trade, we expect a marginal increase in total trade, with the trade balance remaining in surplus for the rest of the year. On our projection, the Q2-26 surplus will widen to NGN9.0 trillion, up from NGN7.55 trillion in Q1-26 and NGN6.26 trillion in Q2-25, as a lower import bill more than offsets the gradual recovery in export earnings.
