June 16, 2026/Oilprice.com
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
China Slams the Brakes on Crude Refining
– China’s crude throughput has plunged by a hefty 9.1% year-over-year to 12.7 million b/d, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics, marking one of the most substantial instances of demand destruction on the heels of the US-Iran conflict.
– Refinery runs in China plunged to their lowest since April 2022, depressed by negative refining margins and the still ongoing product export ban, despite Beijing enticing its downstream sector with a new product export quota last week.
– China’s seaborne crude imports in June to date suggests that May’s multi-year lows might not be the end of the tunnel, as inflows to Chinese ports dropped by another 600,000 b/d month-over-month to 6 million b/d.
– Even if at a relatively slow pace, China has finally started to draw down its giant 1.3-billion-barrel crude inventory, with Kpler data showing current stocks almost 20 million barrels lower than two months ago.
– Meanwhile, China’s retail sales contracted for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, down 0.6% from a year ago, indicating that Chinese consumer spending is reactive to energy-driven spikes.
Market Movers
– US LNG developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) has filed its application with the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to build an 11.7 mtpa expansion at its 28 mtpa Calcasieu Pass 2 terminal in Louisiana.
– Libya’s National Oil Corporation has finalized three upstream deal with Spain’s Repsol (BME:REP) and Italy’s ENI (BIT:ENI), pushing ahead for exploration in the offshore block 07 as well as onshore blocks 01 and 07.
– Norway’s state oil company Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) has pledged to double its share buybacks thanks to windfall profits from the US-Iran conflict, hiking them up from $1.5 billion projected in February to a 2026 target of $3 billion.
– US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has reached an agreement with Helleniq Energy to acquire a 70% stake in Greece’s Block 10 offshore hydrocarbon block, to the west of the Peloponnese peninsula.
– Hungary’s national oil firm MOL (BPSE:MOL) said it had agreed with Serbia to buy its national oil company NIS, receiving a 15-day approval extension from OFAC to conclude the deal with Russia’s Gazprom Neft.
Tuesday, June 16, 2026
The US-Iran deal providing for the immediate re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US maritime blockade on Iran has been signed by US President Trump, Vice President Vance and Iran’s parliamentary speaker Qalibaf, sending Brent futures below $80 per barrel for the first time in more than 4 months. Unless derailed by another Israeli attack on Lebanon, oil markets could finally leave the conflict behind and ‘let the oil flow’.
Trump Rejects US Investments to Iran. Talking on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France, US President Trump claimed that the US would not be investing in Iran as part of the temporary peace agreement, however said there could be ‘huge opportunities’ in Iran once the peace deal is done.
UAE Oil Tenders Flood Asian Markets. The UAE’s national oil company ADNOC has sold at least 30 million barrels of spot crude to Asian refiners and traders so far in June, boosting Middle Eastern supply at a time when the return of stranded Gulf barrels is leading to a regional overflow of oil.
Woodside Refuses to Become a Target. Australia’s upstream major Woodside (ASX:WDS) announced that it was not aware of any proposal involving US oil giant ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) after rumours started circulating about it becoming a potential takeover target for the Texas-based major.
US Strategic Stocks Drop to 43-Year Low. Crude volumes held in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to its lowest level since 1983, coming in at 340.2 million barrels as of June 12, creating a headache for the White House as it needs to sell further 88 MMbbls in fiscal years 2028-2031.
Turkey Pushes Back on Iraqi Pipeline Deal. The Turkish government has warned that it did not want an extension of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, bringing Kurdish oil to the Mediterranean, under current conditions as its terms have been subjected to arbitration, with the contract running out July 27.
Chinese Coal Output Plunges After Disaster. China’s coal production dipped by 1.7% from a year earlier to 397.22 million metric tonnes, brought lower by widespread clampdowns on mine safety following the May 22 disaster at the Liushenyu coal mine that killed 82 miners.
Banks Lower 2026 Price Forecasts. Global banks have reacted immediately to the prospect of a US-Iran peace deal as Goldman Sachs is now expecting Brent to average $80 per barrel in Q4 2026, down $10 per barrel from its previous forecast, a prediction mirrored by Morgan Stanley.
Refinery Woes Keep Russia’s Exports at Records. The four-week average of Russia’s seaborne crude exports shot up to 3.83 million b/d, the highest pace for the year so far, with Ukraine hitting six refineries so far in June, prompting more oil towards the country’s crude export terminals.
Australia’s LNG Strike Spirals Out of Control. The Japanese government is assessing the physical impact of the ongoing Ichthys LNG industrial action that might paralyze exports from the Australian LNG terminal after a court rejected Inpex’s bid to block the worker’s strike, extended until July 6.
UK Buyers Go Back to Indian Jet Fuel. The UK is set to receive its first tanker of Indian jet fuel since January, following a May government decision to temporarily lift its ban on fuels made using Russian crude, with the Solo tanker carrying 500,000 barrels of kerosene from Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery.
Qatar Gets Ready for a Full LNG Restart. QatarEnergy has expressed its readiness to resume liquefied natural gas production at its Ras Laffan LNG plant, stating that it could reach full capacity output at trains not damaged by Iranian drone strikes (12 out of 14) within the next month.
Waha Prices Rebound to Positive Territory. US spot natural gas prices at the key Waha hub of West Texas turned positive for the first time since early February 2026 as rising cooling demand for natural gas and the end of spring pipeline maintenance saw pushed them to $0.42 per MMBtu.
Hormuz Re-Opening Cools Down Aluminium Markets. Aluminium fell to a 2-month low following news of a preliminary US-Iran deal, with the benchmark LME three-month contract dipping 5% to $3,350 per metric tonne as Bahraini and UAE aluminium could find its way to global markets again.
India Hikes Middle Distillate Export Levies. The Indian government has increased export levies on diesel and jet fuel, despite hopes of a re-opening Strait of Hormuz, lifting them to $24 per barrel and $21 per barrel, respectively, as the country’s domestic transportation fuel demand continues to rise.
