June 23, 2026/Oilprice.com
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
From War Shock to Weather Shock: Super El Niño Threatens Fresh Commodity Chaos
– Record high sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are paving the way for an unprecedentedly severe ‘Super’ El Niño, with equatorial temperatures currently 1.7C above the 30-year average.
– This summer would witness the largest temperature deviation from the historical average for the month of June since 1981.
– The previous El Niño in 2023-2024 led to the tripling of cocoa prices after the failure of West African harvest, with 10-15% increases recorded in wheat, corn, sugar, rice and coffee prices.
– Asian buyers of LNG have started to boost their imports ahead of peak July-August cooling demand, with China expecting its national peak power demand to surpass 1,600 GW this summer, some 90 GW above previous record levels.
– A harbinger of shortages to come for the soft commodities, a ‘Super’ El Niño is at the same time positive for US oil producers as it greatly reduces the risk of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.
Market Movers
— US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) will re-domicile from New Jersey to Texas effective 1 July 2026, the end of a 37-year gradual relocation to its operational base in the Lone Star State.
– Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is reportedly seeking to divest a stake in its sulphur business, expecting to garner some $7 billion as it remains the world’s largest sulphur exporter.
– London-based global energy giant Shell (LON:SHEL) has signed a memorandum of understanding with Gabon for a deepwater exploration block in the African country, marking its return to the country after a 7-year pause.
– US exploration firm Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) announced an offshore discovery Cote d’Ivoire with its Bubale-1X exploration well, encountering 30 meters of net pay some 40 miles off the country’s coast.
– Azule Energy, the joint venture of ENI and BP in Angola, announced the final investment decision on the Greater PAJ offshore project, with first oil from the 5 offshore fields in Blocks 31 and 31/21 expected in H1 2029.
Tuesday, June 23, 2026
This week’s US-Iran talks, the first organized attempt of the two sides to move beyond the current transitional ceasefire period, have eased the market’s concerns about global supply disruptions, with ICE Brent edging slightly lower to $77-78 per barrel. Trump’s announced 60-day waiver on all Iranian crude and product exports has failed to trigger a price collapse, with market participants still wondering if there’s enough risk appetite (and buying interest) from non-Chinese refiners.
US Lifts Iran Sanctions for 60 Days. The Trump administration has authorized transactions related to Iran’s oil and refined products through August 21, easing decades-old sanctions to allow any buyer (US-based firms included) to buy Iranian as Washington and Tehran continue their talks in Switzerland.
Trump Pulls the Exxon Card on Cuba. Aligning with the Trump administration’s rising pressure on the island nation of Cuba, the US Supreme Court ruled in favour of oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) to seek compensation for the 1959 nationalization of its assets, reversing its earlier 2024 decision.
Crimea’s Fuel Crisis Deteriorates. Ukraine’s drone strikes and ensuing panic buying have prompted several Russian regions to introduce restrictions on retail sales, with gasoline shortages particularly acute in the Crimea, prompting fuel sale limits and the banning of mass outdoor activities.
India Boosts US Imports of LPG. Indian imports of propane and butane are expected to recover to near-normal levels in June as the country’s buyers expect a record delivery of 1.1 million tonnes of LPG from the US, easing the cooking gas crisis that overwhelmed the Asian nation this spring.
Qatar Shook by Giant Gas Blaze. Qatar’s national energy company QatarEnergy confirmed the loss of 13 lives after its Barzan gas treatment plant saw a giant blaze, debilitating some 1.4 BCf/d of capacity, equivalent to 8% of the country’s total gas supply and a notable source of condensate.
Brazil to Take Over Mexico’s Offshore. Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has signed a memorandum of understanding with Mexico’s NOC Pemex for strategic cooperation in oil and gas projects, widely seen as the deepwater offshore specialist’s entry into Mexican deepwater projects.
China Readies 2nd Terminal for Russian LNG. China is preparing a second import terminal to handle sanctioned LNG supplies from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, with the PipeChina-operated Longkou LNG terminal in the country’s eastern Shandong province expected to take first delivery soon.
Saudi Crude Exports Plunge to All-Time Lows. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports fell to just 3.990 million b/d in April, down almost 1 million b/d from March as per JODI data released this week, marking the lowest pace of outflows from the Arabian kingdom since it started publishing official data.
Tepid Demand Outlook Pulls Iron Ore Lower. A seasonally weakening steel consumption outlook and rising global supply continue to put downward pressure on iron ore prices, with futures on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange falling to a 12-month low of ¥738 per metric tonne ($109/mt).
Europe’s Heatwaves Choke Off Navigation. Plunging levels of the River Rhine are gradually impeding intra-continental flows across Europe as this month’s heatwave continues to disrupt economic activity, with German water levels expected to drop to just 33 inches by Friday.
Indonesia Eyes Higher Coal Supply. Indonesia’s Energy Ministry has directed the country’s miners to urgently boost domestic coal production to mitigate the impact of rolling blackouts, with Jakarta demanding that mining firms supply an additional 2.7 million tonnes per month to power plants.
Beijing to Keep Export Curbs in July. According to S&P Global, China’s top economic planner NDRC intends to keep exports of refined products restricted in July, only allowing outflows of transportation fuels to regional neighbors (Australia, Vietnam) that remain import-dependent.
Rare Earth Tit-for-Tat Escalates. China’s Commerce Ministry has added US-based miners MP Materials (NYSE:MP) and USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR), as well as 8 other smaller entities, to its list of export controls linked to the US military, in retaliation for a similar move from the White House.
Iraq Starts to Hike Production. Anticipating a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz over the upcoming days, Iraqi oil producers have ramped up crude oil output at the country’s southern oilfields to 2.1 million b/d, doubling the production rate compared to April-May levels.