June 26, 2026/Cordros Report
The domestic bourse market closed the week on a negative note, as investors consolidated recent gains across select large cap tickers. Precisely, losses in ARADEL (-19.0%), BUACEMENT (-16.1%), DANGCEM (-10.0%), NESTLE (-10.0%) and GEREGU (-10.0%) dragged the All-Share Index lower by 1.7% w/w to 232,049.02 points
Global
According to the latest data from S&P Global, US Composite PMI rose to 52.2 points in June (vs May: 51.5 points). Although the reading suggests strong growth, the expansion remains subdued relative to pre-conflict levels (Jan-26: 53.0 points). The print was primarily driven by stronger activity in the manufacturing sector, while the services sector posted a marginal improvement. More specifically, manufacturing output expanded to 57.7 points in June (May: 56.6 points), as businesses sought to restock ahead of potential shortages and price increases in the event of renewed Middle East tensions. Similarly, the US Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 51.3 points in June (May: 50.7 points), likely supported by increased activity linked to the start of the FIFA World Cup. Elsewhere, the labour market weakened further in June, recording its third contraction in four months, as firms responded to concerns over the economic outlook and rising input costs, particularly prices of raw material. At the same time, inflationary pressures remained firm, driven by still-high input and output prices. Looking ahead, we expect the US private sector to remain resilient and in expansionary territory, supported by strong services sector activity tied to the ongoing FIFA World Cup. At the same time, a resolution of the Middle East war should ease supply related disruptions and lower input costs. However, a fragile ceasefire deal between US and Iran could reignite uncertainty over the economic outlook and continue to weigh on business confidence.
Based on the recently released data from S&P Global, the UK Composite PMI contracted for a second consecutive month to 49.4 points in June (May: 49.7 points), undershooting market expectations of 50.6 points. The decline was primarily driven by the contraction in services activity, which more than offset the mild growth in manufacturing output. Specifically, the services sector (48.7 points vs May: 49.3 points) sustained its weak momentum as still high costs and weaker customer confidence, linked to the Middle East war, dampened activity. In contrast, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.6 points (May: 52.2 points), reflecting stockpiling efforts by producers in anticipation of higher goods prices amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. However, input price inflation eased for a second month as a modest de-escalation in the Middle East relieved upward pressure on energy prices, although cost growth remained above average. Elsewhere, employment continued to decline at a fast rate, with firms still citing higher National Insurance contributions. In the near term, we expect UK private sector activity to remain subdued. While a resolution of the Middle East conflict could ease input cost pressures, greater political stability remains the more immediate precondition for restoring business confidence and spending, and ultimately enabling a meaningful recovery in growth.
Global Market
Global equities traded on a mixed note this week, as a sharp selloff in technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) linked names, driven by scrutiny over debt-funded AI spending and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, was partly offset by resilience in defensive and financial sectors. At the time of writing, major US indices were mixed, with the Dow (DJIA: +0.7%) closing higher on a rotation into defensive and financial names, while the S&P 500 (-1.9%) and NASDAQ (-4.4%) declined, weighed down by heavy losses in semiconductor and AI-linked tickers amid concerns over stretched valuations, even as stronger-than-expected earnings from Micron offered some reprieve. Meanwhile, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: +0.3%; FTSE 100: +1.2%) advanced, supported by lower oil prices, a rotation into defensive sectors, and gains in financials, with both indices reinforced by their limited technology exposure. Elsewhere, Asian markets (SSE: -1.5%; Nikkei 225: -2.7%) declined, as the global technology rout spread across the region, with Japan led lower by steep losses in memory chip heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Finally, the Emerging Market (MSCI EM: -1.7%) index declined, dragged by losses in South Korea (-7.1%) and Taiwan (-4.1%), while the Frontier Market (MSCI FM: +0.6%) index advanced, supported by gains in Romania (+4.6%) and Vietnam (+2.2%).
Domestic Economy
According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Credit to the Private Sector (CPS) rose modestly by 0.6% m/m to NGN81.04 trillion in May (vs April: NGN80.59 trillion). The weak growth can be attributed to the impact of CBN’s cautious monetary policy. At the same time, credit to the government increased by 2.0% m/m to NGN40.38 trillion (vs April: NGN39.60 trillion), indicating increased government borrowing from domestic banks to finance the deficit. Currency in circulation increased by 0.8% m/m to NGN5.69 trillion in May 2026 (vs April: NGN5.65 trillion), suggesting elevated nominal spending and the continued dominance of cash in informal sector transactions. Overall, broad money supply (M3) rose by 3.4% m/m to NGN129.21 trillion (vs April: NGN124.98 trillion), reflecting increases in both narrow money (+2.0% m/m) and quasi-money (+4.1% m/m). In the near term, growth in credit to the private sector is expected to remain subdued given the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) cautious stance. The MPC’s decision to keep interest rates at current levels at its May meeting is likely to sustain tight financing conditions, limiting access to credit for businesses and weighing on private sector investment.
According to the National Communications Commission (NCC), active telephony subscribers sustained its recovery in April, rising 1.2% m/m to 188.01 million (+8.7% y/y | March: 185.72 million). The improvement reflects continued normalisation of the subscriber base towards pre-NIN-SIM linkage levels, aided by operators’ deliberate efforts to reactivate disconnected lines, deepen market penetration, and strengthen customer retention. Similarly, internet subscriptions increased by 0.8% m/m to 154.35 million in April (March: 153.15 million). At the same time, internet subscriptions rose by 8.7% y/y (April 2025: 141.99 million). By market share, MTN Nigeria retained its dominant position with 51.3% of total active telephony subscriptions, equivalent to 96.39 million subscribers. Airtel Nigeria followed with 34.4% or 64.67 million subscribers, while Globacom accounted for 12.3% or 23.18 million subscribers. T2, formerly 9mobile, remained the smallest operator by subscriber share, with 1.9% or 3.54 million subscribers. Looking ahead, we expect the subscriber base to sustain its gradual recovery, supported primarily by stronger growth from the two dominant operators, MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria. In our view, the near term expansion will be driven by deliberate commercial initiatives, including targeted SIM reactivation, improved subscriber retention, stronger customer engagement, enhanced distribution efficiency, and continued investment in network coverage. While Nigeria’s favourable demographics remain supportive, we believe operator-led acquisition and retention strategies will be the more immediate drivers of subscriber growth.
Capital Markets
Equities
The domestic bourse market closed the week on a negative note, as investors consolidated recent gains across select large cap tickers. Precisely, losses in ARADEL (-19.0%), BUACEMENT (-16.1%), DANGCEM (-10.0%), NESTLE (-10.0%) and GEREGU (-10.0%) dragged the All-Share Index lower by 1.7% w/w to 232,049.02 points, bringing the month-to-date and year-to-date returns to -7.5% and +48.9%, respectively. On market activity, trading volume and value declined by 15.4% w/w and 41.8% w/w, respectively. On sector performance, the Oil & Gas (-9.9%), Industrial Goods (-8.2%), Insurance (-4.4%), and Consumer Goods (-1.5%) indices closed lower, while the Banking (+3.5%) index was the sole gainer for the week.
Looking ahead, we expect buying interest to improve, supported by recent price declines and anticipation of dividend declarations.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate increased by 3bps to 22.2% as debits for the OMO (NGN4.74 trillion) and FGN bond (NGN1.22 trillion) primary market auctions offset inflows from OMO maturities (NGN2.93 trillion) and FGN bond coupon payments (NGN510.40 billion). Consequently, system liquidity moderated to an average net long position of NGN3.57 trillion, relative to NGN4.21 trillion in the previous week.
In the absence of any mop up operations by the CBN, system liquidity is expected to be bolstered by inflows from OMO maturities to the tune of NGN857.00 billion.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills secondary market traded on a bearish note with average yields across all instruments expanding by 45bps to 19.6%, due to an upward repricing of instruments amid elevated supply. Across the segments, average yield in the NTB secondary market expanded by 52bps to 18.7%, while average yield in the OMO secondary market expanded by 44bps to 21.5%. At Monday’s OMO auction, the CBN offered NGN600.00 billion across tenors, with total demand reaching NGN2.71 trillion. Eventually, the CBN allotted NGN2.67 trillion, with stop rates settling at 20.40% and 20.02% for the 99-, 134-day tenors, respectively. At Tuesday’s OMO auction, the CBN offered NGN600.00 billion across tenors, with total demand reaching NGN2.10 trillion. Consequently, the CBN allotted NGN2.06 trillion, with stop rates settling at 20.75% and 19.99% for the 70-, 140-day tenors, respectively.
In the coming week, we expect mixed trading in the Treasury bills secondary market, as robust system liquidity is likely to support demand and exert downward pressure on yields, while elevated supply may temper yield compression by weighing on secondary market prices.
Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market traded on a bearish note, with the average yield expanding by 76bps to 17.7%, due to domestic and offshore selling pressure. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield expanded at the short (+103bps), mid (+81bps) and long (+43bps) segments, driven by selloffs of the MAR-2027 (+227bps), MAY-2033 (+132bps) and APR-2037 (+103bps) bonds, respectively.
Over the medium term, we expect yields to remain elevated driven by the government’s elevated borrowing programme and continued risk off sentiment, especially from offshore investors.
Foreign Exchange
The naira depreciated by 0.98% w/w to settle at NGN1,384.00/USD, reflecting domestic demand pressure. Meanwhile, gross external reserves increased by USD106.29 million to USD51.25 billion (25 June 2026), marking the seventh consecutive week of growth. The CBN intervened in the market, selling USD100.00 million, the first time in eight weeks. In the forwards market, the naira rates depreciated across the 1-month (-0.7% to NGN1,400.80/USD) and 3-month (-0.3% to NGN1,437.39/USD) contracts, while it appreciated on the 1-year (+0.6% to NGN1,598.22/USD) contract. The naira closed flat on the 6-month (NGN1,491.34/USD) contract.
We expect near term FX demand pressures to ease gradually as seasonal summer-related FX demand moderates, providing some support for exchange rate stability. This, alongside sustained official FX liquidity provision and resilient autonomous market supply, is expected to cushion the market and limit disorderly movements.