This week, market sentiment improved following three consecutive weeks of declines, as investors took advantage of attractive entry points in fundamentally sound stocks. Notably, the rebound was driven by bargain hunting in AIRTELAFRI (+13.9%), ARADEL (+18.7%), DANGCEM (+17.9%), MTNN (+8.1%), and HBMN (+15.1%). As a result, the All-Share Index advanced by 6.4% w/w to settle at 243,798.76 points
July 10, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
Recent data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed consumer price growth slowed to 1.0% y/y in June (May: +1.2% y/y), below market expectations of 1.1% y/y. The ease in price pressures was primarily driven by lower non-food costs alongside continued declines in food prices. Specifically, industrial consumer goods inflation slowed to 2.9% y/y (May: +3.9% y/y), as a downturn in global oil and commodity markets pulled down domestic retail petrol and gold jewellery prices. Food prices fell for the third consecutive month, though the pace of decline eased to -1.6% y/y (May: -1.7% y/y), reflecting persistently weak pork prices and continued decline in fresh fruit prices. Meanwhile, service inflation held steady at 0.8% y/y, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy, slowed to 1.0% y/y (May: +1.1% y/y). On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices fell to -0.3% (May: -0.1% m/m), reflecting increased seasonal food supply and lower global commodity prices. Looking ahead, we expect consumer prices to remain subdued, hovering around 1.0% y/y or easing slightly, as weak food prices, softer commodity costs and fragile domestic demand continue to cap price pressures. However, renewed oil-price pressures from geopolitical risks could limit the pace of disinflation, particularly through fuel and transport costs.
According to the United States Department of Labor, initial jobless claims declined by 2,000 to 215,000 for the week ended July 4, down from a revised 217,000 in the prior week, and below market expectations of 218,000. The moderation marks a six-week low in filings, signalling that, despite a recent broader slowdown in monthly hiring, employers continue to retain existing staff. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the largest increases were recorded in New Jersey (+7,262), Connecticut (+2,503), and Massachusetts (+1,823), while the largest declines were seen in California (-6,158), Pennsylvania (-2,995), and Minnesota (-1,947). Meanwhile, the four-week moving average, which smooths single-week volatility, fell by 3,750 to 218,750 from a revised 222,500. Initial jobless claims are expected to remain contained, reflecting limited layoffs despite softer hiring. However, elevated borrowing costs and cautious business sentiment may keep claims modestly above recent lows, pointing to gradual labour market cooling rather than sharp deterioration.
Global Markets
Global equities delivered a mixed performance this week, as renewed interest in AI and semiconductor names was tempered by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which lifted oil prices and weighed on the broader global macroeconomic backdrop. At the time of writing, major US Indices were mixed with the S&P 500 (+0.8%) and NASDAQ (+1.4%) set to close higher, supported by renewed interest in semiconductor stocks as investors assessed Micron’s expansion plans, Broadcom’s agreement with Apple, and optimism around SK Hynix ADR listing on the NASDAQ. Meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.8%) is set to close lower pressured by the re-escalation of US-Iran tensions, which lifted oil prices and reignited inflationary concerns. Elsewhere, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: -1.8%; FTSE 100: -1.9%) ended the week lower as renewed Middle East tensions lifted oil prices, heightened inflation risks across the region’s energy-import-dependent economies and pushed sovereign bond yields higher on expectations that the ECB may need to maintain a tighter policy stance. Similarly, in Asia, major markets (SSE: -1.2%; Nikkei 225: -1.3%) closed lower amid renewed Middle East tensions. Investor sentiments were further pressured by concerns over China’s growth outlook. Finally, the Emerging and Frontier Market (MSCI EM: -1.9%; MSCI FM: -0.8%) indices declined, reflecting losses in South Korea (-7.6%) and Morocco (-2.8%), respectively.
Domestic Economy
In the July edition of its World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF expects Nigeria to grow by 4.1% y/y in 2026E (2025FY: +4.0% y/y), unchanged from its April forecast. The steady growth forecast primarily reflects improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of-trade effects, even as elevated prices for essentials are expected to weigh on households. Elsewhere, the IMF expects sub-Saharan Africa to grow by 4.3% y/y in 2026E (2025FY: +4.5% y/y), pointing to resilient but tempered regional growth. Further out, the IMF expects global growth to slow to 3.0% y/y in 2026E (2025FY: +3.5% y/y), 10bps lower than April’s forecast (+3.1% y/y), as the drag from the Middle East war is only partly offset by accelerated momentum in the AI-led global technology cycle. While we broadly align with the IMF on Nigeria’s growth outlook, our 2026E projection of 4.28% y/y sits slightly above its forecast. We expect stronger economic activity to be supported by improving oil production, a firmer non-oil sector activities across financial services, ICT and manufacturing, a recovery in the agricultural sector, and relative currency stability, even as elevated input costs and still-restrictive financial conditions temper the pace of expansion.
Based on data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria’s goods trade balance strengthened materially in 5M-26, with the surplus widening by 165.3% y/y to USD11.35 billion (5M-25: USD4.28 billion). The improvement was driven by stronger exports combined with lower imports. Specifically, total exports rose by 18.6% y/y to USD28.28 billion (5M-25: USD23.85 billion), while imports fell by 13.5% y/y to USD16.93 billion (5M-25: USD19.57 billion). We attribute the increase in total exports to higher crude oil & gas export receipts, buoyed by elevated crude oil prices (5M-26 average: USD97.16/barrel vs 5M-25 average: USD73.45/barrel) following the US-Iran conflict. This more than off-set the still-tepid crude oil production (5M-26 average: 1.60mb/d vs 5M-25 average: 1.67mb/d). Refined petroleum product exports also rose steadily, on the back of the ramp-up in domestic refining activity. Meanwhile, the decline in total imports largely reflected a sharp contraction in petroleum product imports, as domestic supply displaced imported fuel. This more than offset the improvement in non-oil imports. We expect stronger crude production, still elevated oil prices and rising refined-product exports to support export growth in 2026E. While improved FX liquidity is expected to sustain non-oil imports, still weak purchasing power may limit the increase, and higher domestic refining capacity is expected to sustain relatively low fuel imports. Overall, we retain our 2026FY forecast for trade surplus at USD25.33 billion (2025FY: USD14.51 billion).
Capital Markets
Equities
This week, market sentiment improved following three consecutive weeks of declines, as investors took advantage of attractive entry points in fundamentally sound stocks. Notably, the rebound was driven by bargain hunting in AIRTELAFRI (+13.9%), ARADEL (+18.7%), DANGCEM (+17.9%), MTNN (+8.1%), and HBMN (+15.1%). As a result, the All-Share Index advanced by 6.4% w/w to settle at 243,798.76 points with the month-to-date and year-to-date returns settling at +6.4% and +56.8%, respectively. On market activity, trading volume and value declined by 5.2% w/w and 39.7% w/w, respectively. Gains were broad-based across sectors, as the Industrial Goods (+10.5%), Oil & Gas (+8.8%), Banking (+4.7%), Insurance (+3.9%), and Consumer Goods (+3.0%) indices all advanced during the week.
Next week, we expect market sentiment to remain constructive as investors continue to position ahead of the H1-26 earnings season, particularly in fundamentally sound stocks still offering attractive entry points. However, elevated fixed-income yields should continue to compete for investor flows, tempering the pace of equity market gains.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate remained flat at 22.2%, despite a slight improvement in system liquidity as inflows from OMO maturities (NGN2.21 trillion) more than offset debits for the NTB PMA (NGN795.10 billion). Consequently, average system liquidity edged higher, settling at a net long position of NGN4.10 trillion.
In the absence of any mop-up operations by the CBN, system liquidity is expected to strengthen next week, driven by inflows from OMO maturities (NGN2.97 trillion).
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills secondary market traded on a bullish note, with average yields across all instruments contracting by 22bps to 19.7%. Across the segments, average yield in the NTB secondary market contracted by 14bps to 18.5%, reflecting renewed offshore interest. Similarly, the average yield in the OMO secondary market fell by 18bps to 21.6%, as investors reinvested proceeds. At Wednesday’s NTB auction, the DMO offered NGN700.00 billion across tenors, with total demand reaching NGN2.03 trillion. Ultimately, the DMO allotted NGN1.06 trillion, with stop rates on the 91- and 364-day tenors expanding by 2bps and 36bps to 16.30% and 17.70%, respectively, while the 182-day tenor remained unchanged at 16.50%.
In the coming week, yields are likely to pare further in the Treasury bills secondary market, supported by the robust system liquidity.
Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market traded on a bullish note following renewed offshore demand. Accordingly, the average yield contracted by 15bps to 17.6%. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield contracted at the short (-7bps), mid (-22bps) and long (-3bps) segments due to demand for the MAR-2027 (-62bps), FEB-2034 (-34bps) and MAR-2050 (-30bps) bonds, respectively.
Over the medium term, we expect yields to remain elevated, driven by the government’s elevated borrowing programme and continued risk-off sentiment, especially from offshore investors.
Foreign Exchange
The naira depreciated by 0.5% w/w to NGN1,380.00/USD, as demand pressures undermined the CBN’s USD80.00 million intervention. Meanwhile, gross external reserves increased by USD217.75 million to USD51.74 billion (09 July 2026), marking its ninth consecutive week of growth. In the forwards market, the naira rates depreciated across the 1-month (-0.6% to NGN1,401.47/USD), 3-month (-0.5% to NGN1,439.77/USD), 6-month (-0.6% to NGN1,496.96/USD) and 1-year (-0.5% to NGN1,609.72/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable in the near term, supported by resilient portfolio inflows, stronger market confidence and an improved current account position. However, should renewed pressures emerge, we expect the CBN to deploy measured FX interventions to limit excessive exchange rate volatility.