July 10, 2026/Oilprice.com
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes have revived the Middle East risk premium, lifting Brent above $76 as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slows and supply disruption fears return.
Friday, July 10, 2026
The return of the Middle Eastern geopolitical risk premium has lifted global oil prices by $4 per barrel this week, with ICE Brent set to settle above $76 per barrel. Renewed US-Iran strikes pushed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz back toward a near-standstill as market concerns about continued supply disruptions outweighed President Trump’s (yet another) Friday attempt to pitch further talks with Tehran.
IEA Pushes Oil Surplus Call into 2027. The International Energy Agency published its monthly oil report, adjusting its 2026 demand drop expectations to 1 million b/d and keeping a bullish view for this year as world oil supply is anticipated to fall by 3.7 million b/d amidst ongoing disruptions in the Middle East.
India Plows Ahead with SPR Expansion Plans. India’s state-controlled oil firm ONGC will build a 13-million-barrel crude reserve in Mangalore as New Delhi accelerates its buildout of stockpiling capacity after the Hormuz blockade exposed the vulnerability of its limited crude emergency inventories.
Iran Rushes to Export Remaining Oil. Iran is squeezing out as many oil tankers as possible, loading 11 million barrels of crude on Thursday, as US President Trump threatened to reimpose a blockade on Iranian outflows via the Gulf of Oman after the short-lived ceasefire deal started to disintegrate.
Gulf Tankers Make Hormuz U-Turn. Renewed attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz have prompted shippers to halt their movement out of the Gulf, with QatarEnergy’s Al Ghariya, Duhail and al Ruwais LNG carriers turning back from the critical waterway, sending insurance costs higher again.
Russia Bans Diesel Exports for a Month. Russia’s government announced a one-month ban on diesel exports, seeking to lower runaway domestic prices on the back of Ukrainian drone strikes, wiping off some 0.5 million b/d of exports and sending European diesel cracks to a 15-year high of $60/barrel.
Chevron’s CPC Tanker Gets Droned. Ukraine’s army attacked the Yasa Polaris oil tanker chartered by US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) with a drone en route to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, prompting the ship to abandon its loading of Kazakh-origin CPC Blend and sail towards the Turkish coast.
China Opens Its Product Floodgates. Beijing has lifted refined fuel export restrictions for the rest of July for state refiners whilst also allowing private refiner ZPC to resume shipments after a four-month halt, with refiners now targeting roughly 3 million tonnes of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports this month.
Venezuela Commits to Oil Policy Revamp. Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez has approved the country’s revamped Hydrocarbons Law, advancing efforts to modernize energy sector regulations and attract foreign investment after two decades of nationalization and asset expropriations.
US to Remove Syria from Terrorist List. President Donald Trump has notified Congress that he plans to remove Syria from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism, starting a 45-day review that could ease restrictions on energy investments as Chevron and ConocoPhillips signed preliminary exploration deals.
Qatar Slams the Brakes on LNG Resumption. Qatar’s state energy firm QatarEnergy has paused efforts to swiftly restart production at its Ras Laffan liquefaction facilities after this week’s attack on the Al Rekayyat LNG carrier, despite having amassed 11 empty vessels outside the port facilities.
Turkey and Iraq Bury the Hatchet, for Now. Turkey and Iraq have agreed on a 12-month extension that would allow for continued crude flows via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, finding a stopgap solution before the initial contract ran out on July 27 and seeking to sign the final deal within the upcoming days.
India Locks in Australian Uranium Supply. India and Australia have finalized arrangements enabling long-term Australian uranium exports for Delhi’s rapidly expanding nuclear fleet, giving Indian utilities access to the world’s largest uranium resource base as it targets 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047.
European Major Sues Mozambique Government. As reported by the World Bank’s Centre for Settlement Disputes, Portugal’s state oil firm Galp (ELI:GALP) has filed an arbitration case against Mozambique, having quit the African country in 2025 after a $335 million capital gains tax claim.
Freeport LNG Goes for Unplanned Turnaround. Freeport LNG will begin a major turnaround at its 16.5 mtpa Texas liquefaction terminal on July 10, lasting until late August, with feedgas supply to the plant already falling from 2.5 Bcf/d to 1.5 Bcf/d as the outage threatens to tighten Atlantic Basin LNG supply.