July 10, 2026/Cordros Report
In this report, we introduce the Cordros Jollof Index (CJI). The index has been created to provide insights into consumer purchasing power and food insecurity that traditional macroeconomic indicators might miss. Specifically, we have built this index to track food prices using the cost of making jollof rice for an average Nigerian household, essentially tracking the prices of the identified food and energy items used in preparing the staple. We turn those prices into a single score on a scale of 0 to 100. A higher score means food is harder to afford; a lower score means it is easier to afford. The score provides a quick, high-frequency indication of price trends and consumer conditions ahead of the official data release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This document explains how it is constructed and how its readings should be interpreted. Thereafter, it sets out what the inaugural readings reveal about Nigerian consumers and market conditions.
Cordros Jollof Index: Introduction and Objectives
Across the world, key economic data are lagging indicators. For instance, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases monthly inflation data about 15 days after the end of each month. Quarterly GDP figures take even longer. They often come about 55 days after the quarter closes. As such, we believe that typical users, particularly analysts and investors, make decisions without access to the most current picture of economic decisions. The Cordros Jollof Index was created to close that gap. With the index, we intend to capture movements in the price of one of Nigeria’s most widely consumed meals and, from this, infer a near-real-time gauge of food inflation and household consumption.
To achieve this, we will survey the market directly each month, collecting prices for a standardised basket of the typical ingredients required to prepare a pot of jollof rice from selected local markets, supermarkets and online outlets. We will utilise a consistent methodology to ensure comparability over time, maintaining ingredient quantities and quality standards. Consequently, as will be explained in detail, we will aggregate into a composite index that tracks periodical (m/m and y/y) changes in the cost of a pot of jollof rice.
What the Index Measures: The Basket
The Index tracks a fixed basket of fifteen food and energy items required to cook a standard pot of jollof rice. We collect the price of each item at a predefined, standard quality to ensure consistency across reporting periods. This way, month-on-month and year-on-year changes reflect real price movements and provide comparable insights on market conditions.
We group items into five spending categories: grains, protein, vegetables, flavourings and energy.
How the Index Is Built
We build the index in four clear stages, progressing from raw market prices to the final index value. The method is transparent and easy to replicate, which supports consistent interpretation of the index across periods.
Data Collection, Scaling and Aggregating
Each month, we collect prices from three local markets, two supermarkets, and three online retailers. Data gathered here is obtained through a combination of field visits and digital price checks to ensure its reliability and representativeness. As the 15 items use different units and price ranges, their raw prices cannot be aggregated directly. Instead, we scale each item to a common range of 0 to 1, placing all items on a comparable basis. A value closer to 0 represents a relatively lower price within the observed range, and a value closer to 1 represents a relatively higher price. We then group the scaled items into their respective categories. Within each category, we average the item scores to form a sub-index for each group. We repeat this for every category each month.
Combining Sub-Indices into a Composite Index
The group sub-indices are then combined into a single composite index using fixed weights. The weights reflect each category’s share of average household spending, taken from the latest NBS household survey (Wave 5, 2023/24). This makes the index lean on the categories that matter most to family budgets. The food item group weights are illustrated below.
Converting the Composite Index to Score
Finally, the composite score is rescaled to a 0-100 range for ease of interpretation. A higher index value indicates greater pressure on food budgets, while a lower value indicates more favourable cost conditions. As a relative measure, the index is most meaningful when comparing changes over time.
Reading the Index: The Affordability Bands
The CJI values are grouped into five interpretive bands that indicate the relative level of food cost pressure at each score. For example, a reading of 60 suggests moderate pressure on household income. The reading is then compared with prior periods to establish whether food price pressure in Nigeria is intensifying, easing, or remaining broadly stable over time.
Data Sources, Collection and Governance
The Cordros Research team leads the work, with support from dedicated field staff. They cover selected local markets, supermarkets, and online retailers, through a combination of field surveys and digital price checks. This multi-source approach broadens market coverage, enables cross-checking of price observations, and enhances the accuracy and reliability of the index.
Inaugural Findings: June 2026
The Index reads 75.55 index points in June 2026. The reading reflects a month in which staple food prices rose seasonally on tighter lean-season supplies and higher fuel and transport costs. Underpinning this inaugural CJI level is the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) price shock recorded during the month.
Given that farm produce from Kano, Plateau, Benue and the North-West is moved to Lagos, Port Harcourt and Abuja largely by road, elevated transport costs are quickly passed through to retail food prices.
The June reading also shows how non-food costs feed into the wider basket, pushing the cost of producing a pot of jollof rice to NGN23,782.29. For context, the Index moves with the broader market basket and tracks the direction of Nigeria’s monthly food inflation data.
What Drove the Increase in June 2026
In June 2026, the main pressure came from higher prices for protein, vegetables, the flavouring group, and energy. Together, these account for about 70.0% of the basket. However, much of that pressure was offset by a slowdown in the prices of parboiled rice, and a few in flavouring and vegetables – particularly onions, vegetable oil, and tomato paste.
Interpretation
Inflationary pressure is broadening but uneven. Four broad categories rose month-on-month, with energy and vegetables leading the spike. Energy and vegetable prices rose in the month, keeping the overall basket elevated.
Seasonality remains a swing factor in June 2026. The disinflation of early 2026, when improved northern harvests pulled food prices to a decade low, gave way to renewed pressure in April 2026. That pressure extended to the current month (June 2026). Food inflation re-accelerated to 16.06% in April and overtook headline inflation (15.69%) for the first time in eight months. This momentum was sustained in May 2026, as food inflation rose to 16.96%. The reversal underscores the Index’s sensitivity to supply-side and policy developments that official data capture only with a lag.
Energy is a renewed pressure point. Cooking gas rose 10.5% month-on-month in June 2026, after jumping 26.7% in May. This indicates that household cost pressure extends beyond food into the energy required to prepare it.
The consumer remains stretched, with affordability now at a critical point. At 75.89, the Index sits a notch below the highest band, “Very Critical”. Food-price pressure is real and likely to remain elevated until the September-October main harvest season.