July 13, 2026/United Capital Update
Global Markets
United States
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 54.0 points in June 2026 from 54.5 points in May. The reading signalled continued expansion in the US services sector despite slower growth in business activity and new orders. The employment index returned to expansion for the first time since February 2026, while price pressures eased to a four-month low. Businesses, however, continued to cite inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict.
Euro Area
The S&P Global Euro Area Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 42.8 points in June 2026 from 43.7 points in May, signalling a sharper contraction in construction activity. The downturn reflected weaker activity across France, Italy, and Germany, with residential construction remaining the weakest-performing segment. Although the decline in new orders eased to a four-month low, weak demand prompted further reductions in employment and purchasing activity. Input cost inflation slowed to its lowest level since March, while business sentiment weakened amid persistent uncertainty across the construction sector.
Asia
China’s annual inflation eased to 1.0% in June 2026 from 1.2% in May, marking the softest increase in three months and falling slightly below expectations. Lower transport costs, driven by cheaper domestic fuel prices, contributed to the moderation in inflation. Food prices declined for a third consecutive month, reflecting weaker pork and fresh fruit prices. Core inflation eased to 1.0% in June 2026 from 1.1% May, signalling moderate underlying price pressures despite improving domestic demand.
Oil Markets
Oil prices were mixed during the week as renewed geopolitical concerns and tightening market fundamentals supported Brent crude prices. Brent crude rose by 6.71% week-on-week to US$76.30/bbl, while Bonny Light remained unchanged at US$71.63/bbl. The gains in Brent reflected renewed supply concerns and resilient global demand expectations. However, expectations of higher OPEC+ production and slowing global economic growth continued to temper broader upside potential in the oil market.
Outlook
Global markets will be mixed this week, with US Indexes near record highs but tech under pressure. The S&P 500 Tech sector now about 10% below its recent peak, even as the broader Index grinds higher. Renewed Strait of Hormuz strikes and Trump’s comments that the ceasefire may be “over” are keeping oil and yields elevated. That is capping risk appetite this week. Core inflation is running near 3.4%, well above target. Markets now price roughly an 18–20% chance of a July rate hike rather than a cut. A soft June jobs report, just 57k added, offers some counterweight and that keeps The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s path genuinely two-sided. Q2 earnings season kicks off July 13, with S&P 500 earnings expected to grow over 23% y/y. Energy and tech are expected to lead that growth. Key risks to watch this week include: further Middle East escalation, Fed commentary from Warsh’s congressional testimony, and continued AI-momentum unwind.
Domestic Economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained Nigeria’s economic growth forecast at 4.1% for 2026 and 4.3% for 2027, unchanged from its April projections. The outlook reflects stronger macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade following recent policy reforms. However, IMF notes that persistent increases in essential goods prices continue to pose risks to household purchasing power and consumer welfare. Meanwhile, IMF expects global growth to slow to 3.0% in 2026 from 3.5% in 2025 before recovering to 3.4% in 2027 amid geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures.
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a strong positive note, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) advancing by 6.35% week-on-week to 243,798.76 points. Consequently, the year-to-date return improved to 56.67%. Sectoral performance was broadly positive, as four of the five major indices under our coverage closed higher. The Consumer Goods Index led the gains, rising 1.71% week-on-week, followed by the Banking Index (+0.54%), the Insurance Index (+0.32%), and the Industrial Goods Index, which closed largely unchanged. The Oil & Gas Index was the only laggard, edging down by 0.02% during the week. Overall, improved investor sentiment and sustained buying interest in large-cap stocks supported the market’s strong performance.
Fixed Income and Money Market
The fixed income market was broadly bullish during the week, with yields declining across most segments despite relatively stable liquidity conditions. Across the Nigerian Treasury Bill market, yields declined across all tenors, reflecting improved investor demand for short-term government securities. The 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury Bill yields fell by 0.13%, 0.90% and 0.15% to 16.69%, 18.01% and 20.74%, respectively. Similarly, the bond market closed on a bullish note, with yields declining across all benchmark maturities during the week. The 3-year, 5-year, 7-year and 10-year bond yields fell to 17.93%, 18.00%, 18.21% and 18.27%, respectively. The declines of 0.05%, 0.24%, 0.19% and 0.27% reflected stronger buying interest and improved investor sentiment across the long end. The Overnight (O/N) rate rose by 0.02% to 22.20%, while the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.00%.
Outlook:
Equity Market
Nigerian equities could gain this week, building on last week’s rebound. Major gains are expected in the banking, Oil & Gas, Industrial and Telecommunications sectors.
Fixed Income Market
Nigerian fixed income yields are expected to remain elevated as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) advances its largest quarterly liquidity mop-up of 2026. The 364-day Treasury Bill stop rate rose to 17.70% at the July 8 auction from 17.34% in June despite strong investors demand. The third-quarter programme targets ₦5.8 trillion in Treasury Bill issuance against ₦2.64 trillion maturing, implying ₦3.16 trillion in net new borrowing. This might drive yields up further.