July 17, 2026/Oilprice.com
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities, attacks on critical infrastructure, and near-halted Hormuz tanker traffic are fueling expectations of higher oil prices.
Friday, July 17, 2026
US forces striking civilian infrastructure in Iran, Tehran attacking a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant, repeated attacks on tankers in the Hormuz Strait, and the potential extension of maritime warfare towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – all this points towards oil prices continuing their upward movement in the days to come. With Hormuz transits falling close to zero, it might even feel somewhat counter-intuitive to see ICE Brent trading around $86 per barrel, particularly as both Washington and Tehran seem to have given up on diplomacy.
China’s Oil Imports Fall Off a Cliff. Chinese crude purchases plunged 41% year-on-year in June to 7.12 million b/d, the lowest monthly reading since October 2016, as the Gulf war disrupted Middle Eastern supplies and weakening domestic demand curbed buying in the world’s largest oil-importing nation.
US Turns Back Iran-Bound Ships. The US military has redirected two commercial vessels since reinstating its naval blockade of Iranian ports, reviving an enforcement campaign that turned back 140 ships and disabled nine others between April and June but failed to stop Iranian crude loadings entirely.
Drone Scare Briefly Halts Iraq Oil Loadings. Iraq briefly suspended crude loadings after a suspected drone approached a tanker at Basra, although operations later resumed with no reported damage, while security threats forced the Khor Mor gas field offline, cutting 2.5 GW of power supply in Kurdistan.
India Bars Seafarers from Hormuz Voyages. India has banned the deployment of its seafarers on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz after two nationals were killed in regional attacks, even as unions warn that more than 15,000 Indian crew members remain stranded west of the embattled waterway.
US LNG Returns to China—Sort Of. The first US LNG cargo to reach a Chinese terminal since February 2025 has arrived in Hainan, but its bonded storage status means the fuel can be held, traded or re-exported without clearing customs as Beijing’s 15% tariff keeps direct imports uneconomic.
IEA Gives Hormuz Weeks, Not Months. The global economy could face serious trouble unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens within weeks, IEA chief Fatih Birol warned, with disrupted flows of oil, gas and fertilizer posing the greatest threat to import-dependent Asian economies such as Pakistan or India.
India Slams the Brakes on Fuel Exports. New Delhi nearly doubled export taxes on diesel and jet fuel to 15.5 and 14.5 rupees per litre, respectively, seeking to protect domestic supplies just as strong margins push shipments from Asia’s major fuel exporter toward their highest since September.
Pakistan Pays Up for Emergency LNG. State-owned Pakistan LNG awarded PetroChina a prompt cargo for July 21–22 delivery at a steep $20.7/MMBtu, as the renewed halt in LNG tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz threatens supplies from Qatar and forces Islamabad deeper into the spot market.
Hormuz Squeeze Sends Nickel Higher. Nickel jumped to a three-week high above $17,000 per tonne as disrupted Gulf sulphur shipments threaten Indonesian production, with the world’s largest nickel producer sourcing 75% of its sulphur from the region and processing costs surging by $10,000 per tonne.
Pirates Seize Tanker Off Yemen. Suspected Somali pirates boarded and took control of the chemical tanker Asana in the Gulf of Aden, marking the latest resurgence in regional hijackings just as Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthis to stand ready to seal the Bab el Mandeb strait if the US strikes Tehran again.
Oil Majors Double Down on Iraq. US oil major ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) will acquire a 42% stake in BP’s northern Iraq venture, teaming up to develop 4 producing fields holding more than 3 billion barrels of resources as Baghdad seeks to counter China’s growing dominance with greater US investment.
Trump Rebuilds His Tariff Wall with Brazil. Washington will impose 25% duties on roughly $7 billion of Brazilian goods from July 22, targeting sugar, machinery, and furniture while sparing beef, coffee, and aircraft, as the White House rebuilds its trade tariff offensive following its Supreme Court defeat.
Russia Turns to India for Gasoline. Russia’s top oil companies have approached Indian refiners for gasoline after Ukrainian strikes knocked out a significant share of domestic refining capacity, reversing the countries’ usual energy trade as up to 40% of Russian capacity could remain offline in July-August.
Australia Loses Its Only Manganese Smelter. Tasmania’s Liberty Bell Bay smelter will close immediately after administrators failed to secure a commercially viable buyer, despite federal and state support that included A$10 million for wages, a A$20 million restart package and discounted power supply.
Hackers Leak Secrets of India’s Key Nuclear Plant. Hacker group World Leaks published 19,000 purported Kudankulam-related files, including facility plans and supplier details, although the plant operator insists the leaks concern only common services and not nuclear safety or security systems.