July 27, 2026/United Capital Update
Global Markets
United States
The United States of America has imposed 10.0%–12.5% tariff on imports from about 60 trading partners, replacing the temporary 10.0% tariff that expired on July 24, 2026. Countries with stronger forced labour restrictions, including the UK, Canada, Mexico and India, will face 10.0% tariff, while China, Japan and South Korea face 12.5%. The measures exclude products already subject to sector-specific or national security tariff and form part of efforts to restore the administration’s global tariff agenda. The new duties will apply to nearly all US imports, citing inadequate enforcement of forced labour restrictions. This development may drive global inflation and lower trade.
Euro Area
The European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rates unchanged in July, following a 25-basis-point increase in June, the first rate hike in three years. The decision reflected softer inflation, easing wage growth, weaker economic activity and lower inflation expectations, reducing the urgency for further policy tightening. However, the ECB noted that energy prices remain highly volatile and uncertainty elevated, with the full inflationary impact of recent shocks yet to materialise. The Governing Council said it will continue to monitor the magnitude and duration of the energy shock and its broader effects on inflation and economic activity.
Asia
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept the one-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.0% and the five-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.5% for a 14th consecutive month. The decision reflected caution over Middle East tensions, slowing second-quarter economic growth and persistent weakness in the property sector despite resilient AI-driven export demand. Consumer and producer prices remained under pressure from higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions, while housing prices continued to decline in June. Although Yuan lending increased in June from May, growth remained below last year’s level, signalling that credit demand and economic activity remained subdued.
Oil Markets
Crude oil prices advanced during the week as escalating geopolitical tensions and supply disruption concerns lifted market sentiment. Brent crude rose 19.54% w/w to US$100.69/b. The gains reflected heightened supply risks across key Middle East shipping routes, although expectations of higher OPEC+ production capped further upside.
Outlook
Global markets would focus on the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) holding on July 28-29, 2026. A steady decision with softer forward language could help stabilise battered growth and technology shares. Global equity pattern may be influenced by the release of the quarterly earnings from the following companies: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon alongside Boeing, Visa, and ExxonMobil. Thursday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) releases land the same day as the Fed decision. Oil stays a key swing factor, with Brent at $100 per barrel after a roughly 32% rally on Middle East supply risks. Crypto faces added volatility from Coinbase and Strategy earnings plus Friday’s month-end options expiry.
Domestic Economy
The Monetary Policy Committee retained all policy parameters, keeping the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.50% to consolidate disinflation gains amid persistent external uncertainties. The Committee also maintained the Cash Reserve Ratio, Liquidity Ratio and asymmetric corridor, signalling a continued commitment to monetary policy stability. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.1 points in June 2026 from 49.6 points in May, returning above the 50-point threshold. The improvement marked a modest expansion in private sector activity after two consecutive months of contraction, driven mainly by stronger agricultural activity. However, the industry and services sectors remained in contraction, indicating that the recovery in economic activity has yet to broaden across sectors.
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a positive note, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) rising 1.60% week-on-week to 247,357.40 points. Consequently, the year-to-date return improved to 58.96%. Sectoral performance was broadly positive, as the Banking, Industrial Goods, Insurance and Oil & Gas indices advanced 8.35%, 5.01%, 3.86% and 0.11%, respectively. However, the Consumer Goods Index declined 3.76%, reflecting profit-taking in selected consumer stocks despite broad-based buying across other sectors.
Fixed Income and Money Market
The fixed income market traded mixed during the week, with Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) and bond yields recording mixed movements amid stable liquidity conditions. Across the NTB market, the 91-day yield rose by 0.40% to 16.86%, while the 182-day and 364-day yields declined by 0.05% and 0.19% to 18.22% and 20.71%, respectively. Meanwhile, bond yields declined across all tenors, with the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year and 10-year yields falling by 0.25%, 0.30%, 0.47% and 0.52% to 17.61%, 17.73%, 17.72% and 17.83%, respectively. The Overnight (O/N) rate declined by 0.04% to 22.21%, while the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.00%.
Outlook:
Equity Market
H1 earnings season should stay in the spotlight this week, with more corporate results due across banking, industrials, and consumer goods. Given the scale of this year’s rally, some profit-taking risk should stay elevated this week. Investors should watch valuations closely, particularly in stocks that have outrun their underlying earnings growth..
Fixed Income Market
Nigeria’s fixed income market should stay well supported this week after the CBN held its policy rate at 26.50% for a second straight meeting. Softer June inflation at 15.91% has lifted real returns encouraging more investments in fixed income securities. NTB yields should keep easing on firm demand. System liquidity should stay elevated, aided by maturing OMO and Treasury bill inflows. Watch for the next Nigerian Treasury Bill auction this week. Bond demand should stay strong after July’s FGN auction drew ₦1.74tn in bids against a ₦1.2tn offer, with allotments likely to stay measured.