The Nigerian domestic market closed the week on a positive note, as bargain hunting in FIRSTHOLDCO (+12.2%), ZENITHBANK (+2.0%) and MTNN (+1.0%) outweighed profit-taking in ETI (-18.9%), DANGSUGAR (-7.2%) and TRANSCORP (-7.1%), lifting the All-Share Index marginally higher by 0.1% w/w to 245,573.70 points.
August 7, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US non-farm payrolls declined by 23,000 in July, significantly down from a revised 20,000 addition in June and below market expectations of +80,000. The subdued print reinforces signs of fragile labour demand amid elevated uncertainty linked to Middle East conflict and still tight monetary policy which continue to impact hiring decisions. Breaking down the data, the slump was driven by declines in local government education (-50,000), retail trade (-19,000) and financial services (-14,000) which continued to trend downwards reflecting losses in credit intermediation & related activities and insurance carriers. This brings the total job losses to 125,000 since its peak in May 2025. In contrast, employment in health care continued its upward trend (+22,000) but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+36,000), while most other major sectors showed little change. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate eased by 10bps to 4.1% m/m (June: 4.2% m/m). However, this did not necessarily signal stronger labour market conditions, as the labour force participation rate fell further to 61.4%, its lowest level in more than five years, suggesting that fewer people were actively seeking work. Looking ahead, we expect the US labour market to remain soft reflecting seasonal patterns alongside elevated geopolitical uncertainty, which is likely to keep firms in a no-hire-no-fire stance. However, resilient economic activity is likely to provide a near term anchor and limit the downside to further job losses.
According to the latest data from S&P Global, the US Composite PMI rose to 54.5 points in July (June: 51.9 points), marking its strongest pace of expansion since October 2025, and above preliminary estimates of 53.6 points. The improvement was primarily driven by broad based expansion across the manufacturing and services sectors. More specifically, services activity jumped to 54.6 points in July, up from 51.2 points in June, supported by the strongest rise in new orders since November 2025, likely buoyed by the FIFA World Cup and expanded US Independence Day celebrations. At the same time, business confidence improved early in the month on hopes of easing energy prices and geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, manufacturing output remained in expansionary territory but was unchanged from June’s three-month low of 53.9 points. We attribute this reading to robust domestic demand, though supply chain disruptions during the period caused output growth to slow sharply. Elsewhere, the labour market rebounded in July, with private sector employment rising for the first time since April. However, price pressures remained firm, with input cost inflation accelerating to its highest level since November 2022, pushing output price inflation to a one-year high. Looking ahead, we expect US economic activity to remain robust, underpinned by resilient domestic demand, with risks skewed to the downside. This reflects continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, driven by subdued new business growth, supply chain disruptions, high energy prices and tariffs. At the same time, elevated geopolitical uncertainty is likely to act as a headwind to services activity in the near term.
Global Markets
Global equities traded on a positive note this week, as a strong run of corporate earnings, easing oil prices on renewed US-Iran talks and a rebound in technology stocks drove market performance. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: +2.7%; S&P 500: +2.9%; NASDAQ: +3.8%) were poised to close the week higher at record levels, supported by stronger-than-expected earnings from PLTR and CAT, alongside a rebound in semiconductor names including MU, MRVL and AMD. Similarly, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: +1.7%; FTSE 100: +0.2%) advanced to record highs, led by gains in technology and semiconductor names alongside strength in pharmaceutical and telecommunications stocks, while a retreat in sovereign bond yields provided further support. Elsewhere, Asian markets (SSE: +2.8%; Nikkei 225: +2.0%) advanced, as Chinese equities gained on stronger-than-expected July export data, while Japanese equities rose on renewed strength in technology names. Finally, the Emerging Market (MSCI EM: -0.6%) index declined, dragged by losses in South Korea (-5.1%), while the Frontier Market (MSCI FM: +1.5%) index advanced, supported by gains in Vietnam (+1.8%).
Domestic Economy
In July, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) printed above the 50-point threshold for the second consecutive month. The composite PMI increased to 51.1 points in July (June: 50.1 points), supported by stronger output growth in agriculture and services sectors, which more than offset the contraction in the industry sector. Specifically, the Agriculture PMI (52.1 points vs June: 52.1 points) remained in expansionary territory for the 24th consecutive month, supported by sustained strength in general farming activities, new orders, and inventories. Meanwhile, the Services sector PMI (51.1 points vs June: 49.4 points) returned to expansionary territory, supported by improvements in business activity, new orders, inventories, and employment levels. The recovery was driven by expansion across the real estate, trade, and human health & social services subsectors. In contrast, the industry sector PMI (49.6 points vs June: 49.5 points) remained in contractionary territory, though the pace of contraction eased. The weak industrial outturn continued reflects continued weakness in production, new orders, and raw material inventories due to elevated price pressures. Looking ahead, we expect the private sector to remain in expansion, supported by still firm activity in the agricultural and services sectors. Nonetheless, high input costs and weak purchasing power may continue to weigh on activity in the industrial sector, keeping the overall pace of expansion moderate. Furthermore, the CBN’s cautious monetary policy stance is expected to keep financial conditions tight, further constraining economic activity in the near term.
According to the National Communications Commission (NCC), active telephony subscribers sustained its recovery in May, rising by 0.9% m/m to 189.68 million (+9.8% y/y | April: 188.01 million). The improvement reflects continued normalisation of the subscriber base towards pre-NIN-SIM linkage levels, aided by operators’ deliberate efforts to reactivate disconnected lines, deepen market penetration, and strengthen customer retention. Similarly, internet subscriptions increased by 1.7% m/m and 11.2% y/y to 157.41 million in May (April: 154.72 million; May 2025: 141.57 million). By market share, MTN Nigeria retained its dominant position with 51.2% of total active telephony subscriptions, equivalent to 96.98 million subscribers. Airtel Nigeria followed with 34.6% or 65.45 million subscribers, while Globacom accounted for 12.4% or 23.47 million subscribers. T2 (formerly 9mobile) remained the smallest operator by subscriber share, with 1.9%, or 3.54 million subscribers. Looking ahead, we expect the subscriber base to sustain its gradual recovery, supported primarily by stronger growth from the two dominant operators, MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria. In our view, the near term expansion will be driven by deliberate commercial initiatives, including targeted SIM reactivation, improved subscriber retention, stronger customer engagement, enhanced distribution efficiency, and continued investment in network coverage. While Nigeria’s favourable demographics remain supportive, we believe operator-led acquisition and retention strategies will be the more immediate drivers of subscriber growth.
Capital Markets
Equities
The Nigerian domestic market closed the week on a positive note, as bargain hunting in FIRSTHOLDCO (+12.2%), ZENITHBANK (+2.0%) and MTNN (+1.0%) outweighed profit-taking in ETI (-18.9%), DANGSUGAR (-7.2%) and TRANSCORP (-7.1%), lifting the All-Share Index marginally higher by 0.1% w/w to 245,573.70 points. As a result, year-to-date returns settled at +57.8%. On market activity, trading volume advanced by 9.1% w/w, while trading value declined by 64.7% w/w. Sectoral performance was mixed, as the Insurance (-3.9%), Consumer Goods (-1.7%) and Industrial Goods (-0.2%) indices closed lower while the Banking (+2.4%) index was the sole gainer. The Oil & Gas index closed flat.
Next week, we expect trading to remain choppy as investors continue to selectively rotate into counters supported by strong earnings momentum, robust cash flow generation and attractive interim dividend prospects.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate contracted by 4bps w/w to 22.1% as inflows from OMO maturities (NGN2.45 trillion) and robust Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) placements at the end of the week offset debits from the OMO PMA (NGN4.70 trillion). Consequently, average system liquidity remained strong, settling at a net long position of NGN3.53 trillion, compared to NGN3.54 trillion in the previous week.
Barring any mop up activities by the CBN, we expect system liquidity to remain robust, supported by inflows from OMO maturities (NGN1.58 trillion).
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills secondary market traded on a bullish note as the average yield across all instruments contracted by 9bps to 19.1%. By segment, average yield in the NTB secondary market contracted by 11bps to 18.1%, supported by ample system liquidity and robust domestic demand. In contrast, the average yield in the OMO secondary market expanded by 9bps to 21.4% as investors unwound positions to participate in the week’s OMO PMA. At Monday’s OMO auction, the CBN offered NGN600.00 billion across tenors, with total demand reaching NGN2.97 trillion. Consequently, the CBN allotted NGN2.52 trillion with stop rates settling at 20.10% for the 141-day tenor, while no sales was made for the 131-day tenor. At Tuesday’s OMO auction, the CBN offered NGN600.00 billion across tenors, with total demand reaching NGN2.20 trillion. Accordingly, the CBN allotted NGN2.17 trillion with stop rates settling at 20.35% and 20.15% for the 112- and 133-day tenors, respectively.
Next week, we expect the Treasury bills secondary market to trade on a bullish note, buoyed by resilient local demand amid the robust system liquidity. Additionally, the DMO is scheduled to conduct an NTB PMA next Wednesday (August 12), with NGN700.00 billion in bills expected to be offered.
Bonds
The FGN Bond secondary market traded on a bullish note, contracting by 24bps to 16.8% due to robust domestic demand. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield contracted at the short (-52bps), mid (-21bps) and long (-13bps) segments due to demand for the MAR-2027 (-126bps), APR-2029 (-44bps) and MAR-2050 (-50bps) bonds, respectively.
Over the medium term, we expect yields to remain relatively elevated, underpinned by the government’s sizeable borrowing requirements. However, the gradually improving offshore and local demand could provide some near-term support.
Foreign Exchange
The naira appreciated by 0.3% w/w to NGN1,365.65/USD as FPI inflows following the week’s OMO PMA offset local demand. Meanwhile, gross external reserves increased by USD89.70 million to USD52.03 billion (06 August 2026). In the forwards market, the naira rates appreciated across the 1-month (+0.3% to NGN1,387.94/USD), 3-month (+0.3% to NGN1,425.90/USD), 6-month (+0.3% to NGN1,479.72/USD) and 1-year (+0.3% to NGN1,586.83/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable in the near term, underpinned by resilient portfolio inflows, strong investor confidence, and widening current account surplus.