August 14, 2026/Coronation Report
Summary
We project headline CPI inflation for July 2026 at 15.80% y/y and 1.90% m/m. This would mark a continuation of the disinflation trend, with the year-on-year rate easing further from June even as the month-on-month print firms modestly on the back of a late-month energy price shock.
On a month-on-month basis, we expect a slightly firmer 1.90% (vs. 1.66% in June), reflecting the pass-through of a domestic fuel price shock in the second half of the month, partly offset by early harvest-season relief on staple food prices.
The projected 15.80% y/y print would extend the disinflation trend for a second consecutive month,though the modest uptick in the monthly pace bears watching into August as the fuel shock continues to filter through transport and logistics costs, a relevant consideration for the MPC’s next policy assements.
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