August 18, 2026/CSL Report
July inflation down 48bps . Contrary to our expectation of a 10 basis points (bps) decline in headline inflation, the latest release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed headline inflation moderating by 48bps year-on-year (y/y) to 15.4% in July. The decline was driven primarily by lower core inflation, which more than offset the increase in food inflation. Core inflation fell by 94bps to 15.0% y/y from 15.9% in June, while food inflation rose by 279bps to 20.3% from 17.5% in the previous month.
Monthly inflationary pressures eased for the fourth consecutive month, as the adverse pass-through effects of lingering Middle East tensions continue to fade. Headline inflation moderated by 9bps month-on-month (m/m) to 1.6% in July, matching the decline recorded in June. Core inflation recorded a sharper moderation, falling by 151bps m/m to 0.2% from 1.7% in June, supported partly by 0.8% m/m appreciation of the Naira to ₦1,368.22/US$ and easing price pressures across key service components.
Transport, education services, and housing and utilities inflation slowed to 0.3%, 0.04%, and 0.1% m/m in July, respectively, from 0.8%, 0.3%, and 2.0% in June. Collectively, these components account for 25.3% of the 67.0% weight assigned to the core inflation basket within the composite CPI.
Click here to download full report: CSL Economics and Strategy – July Inflation Report