August 18, 2026/Corddros Report
This note provides an updated 2026E view on MTN Nigeria Plc (MTNN) following its H1-26 earnings release. The company delivered an impressive performance during the period, broadly in line with our expectations. Accordingly, we retain our 2026E revenue growth forecast of 24.0% y/y, underpinned by strong subscriber momentum across voice (95.13m; net adds: 7.83m) and data (57.97m; net adds: 4.77m), alongside a projected blended ARPU of NGN5,525.00 (+17.9% y/y).
We also retain our EBITDA margin forecast at 55.0% (+229bps y/y), as our existing cost assumptions sufficiently capture renewed energy-related inflationary pressures, with no further escalation incorporated at this time. However, we raise our effective tax rate assumption to 34.0% (Prev.: 30.0%), broadly in line with the H1-26 outturn, resulting in a downward revision to our EPS forecast to NGN75.17 (Prev.: NGN80.30).
Reflecting the lower earnings estimate, we revise our year-end target price to NGN1,031.91/s (Prev.: NGN1,047.85/s), implying a 28.2% upside from the current market price of NGN805.00/s, and maintain our “BUY” rating. On shareholder returns, we forecast a 2026E final DPS of NGN42.00, bringing total DPS to NGN68.00 (Interim: NGN26.00), with the final dividend alone implying a 5.2% yield (Total div yield: 8.4%). Based on our revised 2026E estimates, MTNN trades at 10.7x P/E and 5.4x EV/EBITDA, vs, MEA peer averages of 13.7x and 5.8x, respectively.
Operating outlook broadly intact; Higher tax tempers earnings: We retain our 2026E revenue growth forecast at 24.0% y/y, underpinned by higher subscriber base (Voice: 95.13m | Data: 57.97m) and a blended ARPU growth of 17.9% y/y to NGN5,525.00. Across key revenue lines, we forecast growth in data (+36.1% y/y | 58.7% of revenue), voice (+13.8% y/y | 32.6%), digital (+29.3% y/y | 2.0%) and other revenue (+26.8% y/y | 4.9%).
Meanwhile, fintech revenue is forecast to decline by 40.8% y/y (1.8% of revenue), reflecting the suspension of XtraTime services in Q2-26, although gradual reactivation is underway. On profitability, we retain our forecast of 229bps y/y expansion in EBITDA margin to 55.0%, as total expense growth (+18.2% y/y) remains below revenue growth. Below the operating line, net finance costs is forecast to decline by 26.8% y/y, supported by lower leverage amid the complete repayment of FCY loans in Q1-26. However, we lower our EPS growth forecast to 41.6% y/y to NGN75.17 (Prev.: +51.3% y/y to NGN80.30), primarily reflecting a higher effective tax rate assumption of 34.0% (Prev.: 30.0%).
Data monetisation remains a structural growth lever: We believe MTNN retains significant headroom to deepen data monetisation, supported by an expanding data user base, rising smartphone penetration and usage intensity. We forecast data subscribers to grow at a 5.9% CAGR over 2026E–2030E to c.71.00m, supported by continued conversion of voice-only subscribers. Data consumption per subscriber is projected to rise by 23.3% y/y to 16.2GB in 2026E and reach 33.5GB by 2030E, supported by smartphone penetration increasing from 66.1% in 2025FY to c.80.0% by 2030E.
Valuation: Our target price is NGN1,031.91/s, derived from a 60/40 blend of DCF and sector-relative valuation estimates. Our DCF FV is derived from an equal blend of FCFF (NGN1,119.13/s) and FCFE (NGN1,050.44/s) estimates, assuming a 19.6% WACC, 22.1% CoE and 4.0% terminal growth rate. We utilised the EV/EBITDA and PE multiple for our multiple-based FV and derived a fair value of NGN875.32/s and NGN1,029.88/s based on MEA peer average of 5.8x and 13.7x, respectively.