August 24, 2026/United Capital Report
Global Markets
United States
The United States industrial production rose 0.2% in July 2026, but below expectations of a 0.3% increase, after growing by 0.3% in June. Manufacturing output, the largest component, also increased by 0.2%, while mining and utilities output rose by 1.3% and 0.5% respectively. Industrial production measures output across factories, mines, and utilities, providing a key gauge of economic activity and production capacity. The softer-than-expected increase suggests moderating industrial momentum and limited capacity pressures. This points to subdued inflation risks and a slower pace of US economic growth.
Euro Area
Euro Area inflation rose to 2.9% in July 2026 from 2.8% in June, remaining above the European Central Bank (ECB)’s 2.0% target. This was largely due to higher energy prices. In addition, underlying price pressures also strengthened, with services inflation rising to 3.3% from 3.2% in June 2026. Non-energy goods inflation also increased to 0.9% from 0.7%, and core inflation edged up to 2.5% from 2.4%. Persistently elevated inflation may keep the ECB policy tight for longer. This could potentially weigh on economic growth while supporting higher interest rates across the region.
Asia
In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its key lending rates unchanged in August 2026. The Bank maintained one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, for a 15th consecutive month. The decision came amid slowing economic momentum. The country is currently facing weaker GDP growth, softer industrial production and retail sales, falling bank lending, and continued weakness in the property market. The prolonged accommodative stance highlights policymakers’ efforts to support growth. However, persistent economic weakness suggests continued pressure on domestic demand and the broader Chinese economy.
Oil Markets
Crude oil prices increased during the week, with Brent crude rising by 7.71% to US$87.07/b as at August 20, supported by persistent geopolitical risks and supply concerns. Bonny Light rose 0.80% to US$97.38/b as at August 14, while oil prices remained sensitive to global supply developments and geopolitical tensions.
Outlook
Global markets are expected to focus on the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this week, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to speak on monetary policy. Investors will closely assess his remarks for signals on the outlook for interest rates into next year. US economic data will be limited, with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index providing the main scheduled release. Equity markets are expected to remain near record levels, supported by resilient corporate earnings, while Gold should remain well supported. The Dollar is likely to trade within a narrow range, while the Euro and Yen remain influenced by Central Bank policy differences.
Domestic Economy
Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased to 15.43% in July 2026, from 15.91% in June, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. The moderation reflected relative Naira stability and softer price growth across transportation, clothing, restaurants, hotels, and miscellaneous goods and services. However, food inflation accelerated for the sixth consecutive month to 20.31%, from 17.52% in June, while housing and utilities inflation also increased. Core inflation eased to 14.97%, its lowest level since May 2022, from 15.92% in June, indicating reduced underlying price pressures. United Capital Research had earlier released a forecast of 15.35%, making the actual reading 0.08% higher than our forecast.
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a negative note, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) declining 1.20% week-on-week to 242,619.20 points. Consequently, the year-to-date return moderated to 55.91%. Sectoral performance was broadly negative, with the Banking, Insurance, Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods and Oil & Gas indices declining 1.48%, 2.72%, 6.72%, 1.22% and 0.06%, respectively.
Fixed Income and Money Market
The fixed income market traded mixed during the week, with Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) yields rising across longer tenors, while bond yields declined across most tenors. In the NTB market, the 91-day yield declined by 0.29% to 16.97%, while the 182-day and 364-day yields rose by 0.48% each. The 182-day yield increased to 18.63%, while the 364-day yield rose to 20.79%. Bond yields were largely lower, with the 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year yields declining by 0.20%, 0.32% and 0.20%, respectively. The 3-year bond yield edged higher by 0.02% to 17.05%. Meanwhile, the Overnight (O/N) rate remained unchanged at 22.11%, while the Open Repo Rate (OPR) also held at 22.00%.
Outlook:
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market should remain fairly stable this week, despite recent profit-taking following the strong gains recorded earlier in the year. The NGX All-Share Index remains up strongly year-to-date, keeping investor interest supported despite the recent pullback. We expect investors to focus on companies with strong earnings, attractive valuations and good dividend prospects. However, some investors may continue taking profits, which could limit overall market gains and keep trading relatively cautious. Stable Naira conditions and improved investor confidence could provide further support, while upcoming corporate results may influence stock-specific performance.
Fixed Income Market
Nigeria’s fixed income market should remain active this week, with OMO bills likely dominating activity. Treasury bill yields should remain near current levels, with closing and average yields at 20.91% and 16.59%, respectively. Demand should favour shorter-dated instruments. FGN bond yields should remain within the 14.80%–17.75% range, while recent Debt Management Office (DMO) rate adjustments should guide investor expectations ahead of the next auction. Renewed retail and non-bank access to OMO auctions should broaden demand for government securities and support the Naira fixed income market.