September 2, 2026/United Capital Report
Nigerian economy as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 4.43% year on year (y/y) in Q2 2026. This is the highest quarterly GDP figure, recorded since Q1 2024. This shows the strength and resilience of the economy. The growth was largely driven by the non-oil economy, especially the services sector, alongside a strong rebound in agriculture and moderate industrial expansion.
The impressive growth rate shows that the economic reform of the current administration is achieving the desired goals, laying the foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth. Earlier in April 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook report (WEO) released a GDP growth forecast of 4.10% for Nigeria in 2026. This growth forecast was retained in the July WEO update report. Our 2026 Full Year (FY) GDP revised growth forecast is now 4.35%, higher than the 4.10% from IMF.
Non-Oil Sector Sustains Growth Amid Modest Recovery in Oil Sector
The non-oil sector grew by 4.31% y/y in Q2 2026, compared with 3.64% in Q2 2025 and 3.94% in Q1 2026. Growth in the sector was primarily driven by Crop Production, Telecommunications & Information Services, Real Estate, Trade, Financial Institutions, Manufacturing (Cement), and Construction. In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 95.84% to GDP in Q2 2026, slightly lower than the 95.95% recorded in Q2 2025 and 96.08% in Q1 2026.
The oil sector expanded by 7.31% y/y in Q2 2026 compared with 20.46% in Q2 2025 and 2.57% in Q1 2026. The improvement was supported by an increase in crude oil production average of 1.72 million barrels per day (mbpd), compared with 1.68mbpd in Q2 2025 and 1.55mbpd in Q1 2026. Consequently, the oil sector contributed 4.16% to real GDP, compared with 4.05% in Q2 2025 and 3.92% in Q1 2026.