September 14, 2026/CSL Update
- In line with our expectations, Nigeria has been included in the newly launched JP Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets Edge with a weighting of 7.4%.
- The development is expected to be positive for the fixed income market as well as the Naira, although we remain cautious on the near-term timeline for these benefits to materialise.
- Given the duration of the benchmarked bonds, we recommend gradual positioning at the middle of the yield curve, ahead of index-related demand.
Consistent with our earlier expectation (CSL Economics and Strategy: “Eyes on the horizon for the next market catalyst “, 07 October 2025), Nigeria has been included in the newly launched JP Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets Edge (GBI-EM Edge), an index designed to track local currency government debt across frontier emerging markets, with Nigeria assigned a weighting of 7.4%.
We note that the inclusion is a welcome development, as it signals renewed international investor confidence, bringing Nigerian local currency government bonds back into the spotlight after more than a decade of exclusion from the JP Morgan key emerging market bond index. We highlight that Nigeria was originally excluded from the index following the introduction of trading restrictions on the local currency, which made it difficult for foreign investors to adequately replicate the index at the time. This new development lends credence to the significant regulatory and currency reforms enacted over the past two years.