September 14, 2026/United Capital Report
Global Markets
United States
The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in August 2026, unchanged from July and in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed persons rose by 115,000 to 7.03 million, while total employment increased sharply by 569,000 to 162.75 million. The labour force expanded by 683,000 to 169.78 million, lifting the participation rate to 61.6% from 61.4% in July. The employment-to-population ratio also edged higher to 59.1%, while the broader U-6 unemployment rate declined to 7.7% from 7.9%. Overall, the data point to modestly improved labour-market conditions, supported by stronger employment and increased labour-force participation.
Euro Area
The Euro Area economy expanded by 1.2% year-on-year in Q2 2026, up from 1.0% in the previous estimate and 0.6% in Q1 2026. The stronger performance reflected higher household spending, gross fixed capital formation, and exports, which rose 1.2%, 1.4%, and 3.9%, respectively. Imports also increased by 3.6%, while government spending growth slowed to 1.9% from 2.3%. Among major economies, growth accelerated in Germany to 1.0% and Italy to 1.0%, while France slowed to 0.5%. Spain maintained its 2.7% growth rate, highlighting continued resilience across parts of the Euro Area economy.
Asia
Japan’s economy expanded at an annualised 1.4% in Q2 2026, revised up from 1.1% and marking the third consecutive quarter of growth. Growth accelerated from 0.6% in Q1, supported by stronger government spending and a positive contribution from net trade. Exports increased while imports declined, supporting external demand and overall economic activity during the quarter. However, private consumption remained subdued amid persistent price pressures and higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Capital expenditure also remained weak, declining for the second consecutive quarter and weighing on domestic investment.
Oil Markets
Crude oil prices rose during the week, with Brent crude increasing by 12.68% to US$107.63/b, supported by persistent geopolitical risks and supply concerns. Bonny Light also gained 20.44% to US$121.33/b, reflecting stronger global crude prices amid ongoing supply disruptions and concerns over tighter oil markets.
Outlook
Global markets should focus this week on interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. Investors should closely monitor each central bank’s guidance, particularly as policymakers balance persistent inflation pressures against economic growth. The Federal Reserve faces a closely watched decision, with markets pricing about a 70% chance of a rate hike to 3.75%–4.00%. Oil prices should remain elevated, while the US 10-year Treasury yield should remain near 5%. Higher oil prices and bond yields could keep borrowing costs elevated and weigh on global risk appetite. Equity markets may remain under pressure, with investors closely watching the Bank of Japan’s meeting and signals on a potential near-term rate hike.
Domestic Economy
Nigeria’s trade surplus widened sharply in Q2 2026, supported by stronger exports and lower imports year-on-year. Total merchandise trade rose 5.61% year-on-year and 19.13% quarter-on-quarter to ₦41.44tn, reflecting stronger trade activity. Exports increased 18.77% year-on-year and 27.64% quarter-on-quarter to ₦27.02tn, supported by crude oil receipts, Urea shipments, and non-crude oil exports. Imports declined 12.55% year-on-year to ₦14.42tn, despite rising 5.91% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting stronger local refining and import-substitution efforts. Consequently, the trade surplus more than doubled year-on-year to ₦12.60tn, supporting FX liquidity, external balances, and Naira stability.
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a negative note, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) declining by 1.60% week-on-week to 243,052.74 points. Consequently, the year-to-date return eased to 56.19%, although the market maintained a strong annual gain. The decline was driven by profit-taking across the Banking, Insurance, Industrial Goods, and Consumer Goods sectors, while Oil & Gas gained 2.83%.
Fixed Income and Money Market
The fixed-income market traded on a mixed note during the week, with Treasury bill yields rising across most tenors, while bond yields declined. In the Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) market, the 91-day and 182-day yields rose by 0.67% and 0.08% to 18.46% and 18.93%, respectively. Meanwhile, the 364-day yield declined by 0.20% to 19.82%, suggesting stronger demand for longer-dated bills despite higher short-term yields. In the bond market, yields declined across the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year tenors, while the 7-year yield remained unchanged at 17.05%. The Overnight (O/N) rate rose by 0.11% to 22.31%, while the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.00%.
Outlook:
Equity Market
Trading activity should remain elevated as investors reposition around the Dangote Refinery IPO and FTSE Russell’s Frontier Market reclassification, with market breadth key to any recovery in buying interest. The Dangote Refinery IPO is scheduled to go live on Monday, September 14 2026, and would close Tuesday, October 13 2026 potentially driving further portfolio rebalancing and liquidity shifts across the market. We expect profit-taking in FTSE-eligible stocks, as investors raise funds for the Dangote Refinery IPO, this could continue weighing on large-cap counters. The FTSE Russell’s Frontier Market reclassification is to take effect on September 21.
Fixed Income Market
Nigeria’s fixed-income market should remain active this week, supported by improving liquidity and strong investor demand across key tenors. Treasury Bill yields should remain under pressure as investors position ahead of the September Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The September 22–23 MPC meeting should remain a key market driver, with investors watching closely for signals on the interest-rate outlook. Demand should remain strong across the market, as investors seek to lock in attractive. Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) bond yields should remain near recent lows, supported by strong demand and improving liquidity conditions.