September 17, 2026/Coronation Report
Summary
The August print reinforces our view that Nigeria’s disinflation process remains intact and is becoming increasingly broad-based. Unlike previous months where the moderation in headline inflation was driven largely by softer core inflation, August witnessed simultaneous moderation in both food and core inflation, suggesting easing pressures across both supply-driven and underlying inflation components.
The combination of improving harvest conditions, exchange-rate stability and softer underlying price pressures supported the inflation slowdown during the month. Additionally, favorable base effects also contributed significantly to the moderation in annual inflation, particularly in core inflation, where the corresponding base period remained elevated.
While both food and core inflation declined meaningfully in August, NBS contribution data show that the major drivers of headline inflation remained broadly unchanged, consequently, headline inflation eased by only 4bps despite the sharper moderation in both food and core inflation. As base effects gradually fade, the forward path of disinflation will depend increasingly on the persistence of favourable monthly price dynamics.
Headline Inflation
Headline inflation moderated to 15.39% y/y in August 2026 from 15.43% y/y in July, representing a 4bps decline and the third consecutive month of disinflation. The outcome was broadly consistent with our forecast of 15.37% y/y, highlighting the accuracy of our expectation that improving food supply conditions and moderating underlying price pressures would support a further slowdown in inflation. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation eased sharply to 0.71%, compared with 1.57% in July and closely aligned with our forecast of 0.69%.
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