September 30, 2026/Coronation Report
Executive Summary
The listed Nigerian consumer goods universe lost ground against its own sector in the first half of 2026 for the first time in this series. Revenue across the thirteen companies grew 9.29%, against nominal growth of 20.54% in food, beverage and tobacco (FBT) manufacturing. Listed revenue fell from 66.5% of nominal sectoral output to 60.3%. By contrast, that ratio climbed over the five years reviewed (FY2021toFY2025).
In the first six months of 2026, FBT output rose 20.54% in nominal terms and3.50% in real terms, against real GDP growth of4.23%. In nominal terms, FBT outperformed the overall economy, which grew by18.07%. On the real reading, it lagged the economy. Nominal growth in listed revenue was supported mainly by price. Deflated by August 2026 headline inflation, the topline contracted 5.29% in real terms.
The currency shock has now normalised through the income statement. Sector profit before tax moved from a loss of N539.00bn in FY2024 to a profit of N1.07trn in FY2025. Net finance cost fell from 33.5% of EBITDA in FY2024 to 16.2% in FY2025 and 7.2% in the first half of 2026, and fell in absolute terms as well. Gross margin reached 37.97% in the first half of 2026, the highest in the series, against 33.98% in the first half of 2025. Earnings are recovering through margin and financing, not through volume.
The expansion in H1 2026 was driven entirely by a single acquisition. UAC of Nigeria contributed 6.62 of the 9.29 percentage points, all of it the consolidation of CHI Limited from October 2025 against a comparative period that contains none of it. Excluding UAC, the universe grew 2.74% nominally and contracted 10.96% in real terms. Foods Industry, the fastest-growing segment of the previous five years, saw revenue fall 7.24% as BUA Foods lost 16.1% and Dangote Sugar 8.9%. Capital spending was flat, down 0.98%, once two distortions are removed. This suggests the sector is not investing as though it expects volume to return.
The earnings recovery has a ceiling where volume growth remains stagnant. Margin and financing costs are already near the best levels this series has recorded. The ex-UAC universe barely grew, and the Foods Industry, the segment that led five years of expansion, is now shrinking. Capital spending shows no sign that the sector expects that to reverse. Competitive advantage will likely shift to the operators that choose to invest early in volume and market share, as net financing conditions remain favourable, not to those waiting for a shift in the sector cycle.
Download the full report here